It’s already week 10 of the college football betting season and the SEC is starting to heat up and there are several enticing match-ups. The headliner looks to be the showdown between No. 7 Miami and No. 3 Florida State. No. 11 Auburn hits the road to Arkansas. No. 1 Alabama is off.
There will be no beating around the bush as we get straight to the point of picking out each game’s winner in an effort to assist college football gridiron gamblers everywhere.
SEC College Football Betting Picks Week 10
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) have won two straight games, including a thrilling 28-22 Week 9 win over Kentucky, though they failed to cover the spread as a 12.5-point home favorite to fall to a dismal 0-3 ATS over their last three games.
14th-ranked South Carolina (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) bounced back from its surprising Week 8 road loss to Tennessee to stun previously undefeated Missouri 27- 24 in overtime and move back up the BCS national rankings.
For this contest, I think this pick is quite simple. Both of these teams allow an identical 22.9 points per game defensively and South Carolina only puts up 1.8 points per game more than Mississippi State ‘s average of 30.1 points per contest.
So what gives with the Gamecocks being double-digits home favorites here?
Well, if history means anything, it shows the Gamecocks will likely cover the spread in this one.
Not only is the Home team in this rivalry 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs are also just 1-5 ATS in the last half-dozen meetings.
South Carolina is 3-2 SU and ATS in its last five home games against Mississippi State while the Bulldogs’ 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS marks in its last 10 road games isn’t very encouraging.
The Gamecocks are 10-0 SU, but just 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of eight points or more, leading me to believe the Mississippi State Bulldogs could – and will – narrowly cover the college football betting line in this one.
The Pick: Mississippi State +13 Points
The Florida Gators (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) and the Georgia Bulldogs (4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) have both dropped two straight games and are absolutely desperate to win their huge Week 10 SEC showdown.
Florida looked pretty bad in its 36-17 road loss against Missouri two weeks ago. The Gators never came close to covering the spread in Week 8 as a 3-point road favorite to fall to 0-2 ATS over their last two games.
Georgia is coming off a heartbreaking 31-27 upset loss to Vanderbilt in Week 8 that saw them fail to cover the college football betting odds as a 6.5-point road favorite to also fall to 0-2 ATS over their last two games.
Game Analysis: I can see why Georgia is favored in this contest despite being on the road in this SEC battle. The fact of the matter is that the Bulldogs are a much more explosive team than the Gators n offense, though they do give up far more points than the Gators defensively.
The Bulldogs have won two straight in this series while covering the spread in each contest and it should be known that the Gators are just 4-6 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of four points or less.
The Bulldogs are a winless 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games but I’m going to advise college football gamblers to back them anyway with Florida going 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games and a woeful 3-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Besides, if you saw the Gators score a paltry six points against LSU in Week 7 – and back that up with their awful road loss against Missouri , then you know this team has problems galore on both sides of the ball.
The Pick: Georgia -2.5 Points
I’m going to get right to the point with this Week 10 NCAAF pick by saying the 11th-ranked Auburn Tigers (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) are a virtual lock to lay a huge smackdown on the reeling Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) when they meet on Saturday.
Auburn has won four consecutive games including its impressive 45-10 Week 9 blowout over Florida Atlantic the last time out. Not only that, but the Tigers have won four straight games while scoring at least 45 points in each of their last three games and covering the spread in each of their last five games.
Arkansas has lost five straight games including a pitiful 52-0 rout at the hands of No. 1 Alabama on Saturday. The Razorbacks have given up an identical 52 points in each of their last two games while allowing 45 or more in three of their last four games overall.
The Pick: Auburn -9 Points
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) got man-handled in their humbling 45-10 loss to Alabama on Saturday while never coming close to cashing in as a whopping 28-point road underdog.
Tennessee will face a ticked-off ninth-ranked Missouri Tigers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) team that is coming off its first loss of the season in Week 9 as they fell to South Carolina 27-24 despite leading the majority of the contest. The Tigers failed to cover the spread as a 3-point home favorite to snap a profitable five-game ATS winning streak.
Nevertheless, with Missouri averaging 13.8 points per game more than the Vols while simultaneously giving up 6.5 fewer points per game defensively, I am going to advise collegiate gridiron gamblers to back the Tigers to win and cover the spread this week.
Tennessee is just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record while Missouri has gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an SU loss and 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games following an ATS loss. Keep it simple and back the Tigers to win and cash in.
The Pick: Missouri -13
The Texas El Paso Miners (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) have lost five straight games and looked absolutely clueless in their 45-7 Week 9 road loss to Rice and things don’t look very promising as they take on Johnny Manziel and the explosive 12th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) in their Week 10 showdown.
Teas A&M is coming off an overwhelming 56-24 win over Vanderbilt in Week 9, covering the spread as a 17.5-point favorite to snap a three-game ATS losing streak. Not only that, but the Aggies have scored at least 41 points in every single game they’ve played this season while UTEP has managed to reach that figure just twice all season.
Nevertheless, 45.5 points is a whole lot to ask a team to cover, leading me to believe that UTEP is the right pick in this contest. Texas A&M is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 home games, lending credence to my belief that the Miners are going to cover.
The Pick: UTEP +45.5 Points