Leveraging a Sheraton Hawaii Bowl betting expert pick is a bit of a balancing act. Keep in mind that the betting line reflects a team’s performance against expectations. Both Boise State and Oregon State went just 6-6 ATS on the year, and they both played in competitive conferences, though the Pac-12 is a much bigger deal than the Mountain West Conference.
The tight line on this game also serves as a bit of a misnomer. The Hawaii Bowl has a steady recent history of being a blowout. The closest game we’ve had in the past five years was a 24-17 victory by Southern Miss over Nevada. Including that game, the winning team has defeated their opponents by an average of +26.0 points per game.
One of the reasons that you’ll see the Beavers as the take in most Hawaii Bowl betting expert picks is their passing game. Oregon State boasts a great quarterback in Sean Mannion, who threw for 4,403 yards this season. That’s the second most by any quarterback in the entire country. He also threw for 34 touchdowns, but also gave up 14 picks. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it’s the second most by any quarterback who ranked in the top-40 in terms of passing yards on the year.
Neither defense proved efficient at stopping anyone that’s actually talented, but what makes Boise State a bit of a reach in Hawaii Bowl betting expert picks is their road record. The Broncos went just 1-3 SU in their last 4 road games and simply don’t play that well away from the comforts of their blue turfed field. They went 2-2 ATS in those games, but this line is airtight, and the history of the Hawaii Bowl betting matchup also lends itself to more of a lopsided end result.
Simply put, the Beavers traveled way better. They played in six recent road games and went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over the course of them. They lost their most recent two, but those were against Oregon and Arizona State, two of the Pac-12’s better teams and they only lost to Oregon by a point in a 35-36 defeat.
While Boise State has some appeal, the Beavers are the only logical take in a game that’s posting a huge total of 65.0 points. The Beavers hung tough with some competitive teams in a grizzly conference, and they’ll be relieved to play a Boise State program that is on its way back to being irrelevant after knocking on the BCS door a few times in the last decade. That’s why you should stuff my Sheraton Hawaii Bowl betting expert pick in your stocking on Christmas Eve. You can’t trust a lump a coal like the Broncos.