Auburn's 2014 College Football Futures Betting Odds

My Top 5 College Football BCS Bowl Game Betting Tips

With the holidays and the college football bowl season upon us this post doesn’t need any introduction, so let me just cut right to the Top 5 College Football BCS Bowl Game betting tips that should nudge you towards a smarter play in the national title brawl featuring Auburn and Florida State, who are favored by -8.5 points.

My Top 5 College Football BCS Bowl Game Betting Tips

The ACC vs. The SEC
It’s been fourteen years since the ACC won a championship, and just as long since they even appeared in the big game. Even if you count the Miami Hurricanes’ championship matchups from 2001 and 2002 (they were in the Big East but are now in the ACC), it’s still been well over a decade since any of the ACC schools have shown their faces in a championship game.

Meanwhile, the SEC has sent ten teams to the championship game and have won the last seven BCS titles. In fact, since 1998 when this system was introduced, the SEC has lost just once when the crystal football was at stake…and it was against another SEC team when LSU and Alabama played against each other in 2011. I mean, even if you didn’t know anything about either team in this game, those historical facts alone should skew you towards Auburn.

FSU Hasn’t Played Great Teams Yet
Building on that train of thought, this is one of the biggest BCS Bowl Game betting tips I could give you. Florida State has railed almost everyone they’ve played this season, posting an incredible +42.3 point differential throughout the year. Nobody gave them a fight this year. They’ve even dropped 80 points against Idaho and shutout Maryland, while holding three other teams out of the endzone completely.

All of this is incredible, but it does come with a few caveats when you dig deeper in to the matchups. FSU only played four teams that were ranked at some point throughout the year, and none of those teams (Duke, Florida, Miami and Clemson) finished in the top-10. This shouldn’t diminish Florida State’s firepower or legitimacy, and it’s certainly not their fault. They can’t control the strength of their ACC opponents, but it’s worth keeping mind.

Auburn Has Played Great Teams All Year
Sharpening your axe against the grindstone that is the SEC is going to prepare you for war no matter who you are. Auburn has played five teams that ended up ranked, and they’re all high caliber teams. Against ranked teams, Auburn is a crazy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Those opponents include Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Alabama and Missouri. The first four teams were preseason top-15 teams in the AP Rankings, while Missouri showed how good it was by bullying their way to the conference championship game. There are plenty of BCS Bowl Game betting tips I could offer, but remembering that Auburn has faced – and beaten – some of the best teams in the country is a doozy.

Gus Malzahn Has Won A Title Before
The head coach of Auburn is getting a ton of well-due love for what he’s accomplished in his career. Turning this Auburn team in to a world beater is deserving of praise in and of itself, but Malzahn has already won a BCS title when he was this team’s offensive coordinator during that incredible Cam Newton campaign. So while I’m dishing out BCS Bowl Game betting tips, I implore you to pay attention to the influence of coaching.

Jimbo Fisher has a much more decorated career, having coached at Auburn, Cincinnati, LSU and now Florida State but he’s never been to a game this important as a signal caller. Remember that both Malzahn and Fisher are coaching college kids who will be overwhelmed emotionally by the magnitude of the BCS Bowl Game itself. Following the guidance of a coach who has been there before, as opposed to one who hasn’t, may not be the deciding factor when you bet on this line. But coaching has a tremendous impact on college football. You can’t deny that this is making you lean a little farther towards Auburn.

The Team That Runs Better Usually Wins
Look at the list of the last eight offensive MVP’s of the BCS Championship Game in reverse order: Eddie Lacy, AJ McCarron, Michael Dyer, Mark Ingram, Tim Tebow, Matt Flynn, Chris Leak and Vince Young. Everyone except McCarron  and Flynn were either running backs or running quarterbacks. Even McCarron had Trent Richardson. The short version: the team that runs better almost always wins the big one.

How is this a relevant BCS Bowl Game betting tip? Simple. Winston is perhaps one of the greatest athletes of his generation (I’m not even remotely kidding) but he has only really ran the ball effectively twice this season, posting 59 yards against Duke in the conference championship and 67 yards against Boston College. He can run, but that’s not what FSU’s game plan is about.

Auburn is ALL ABOUT rushing the football. Quarterback Nick Marshall piled up 1,023 rushing yards and running back Tre Mason ran for 1,621 of his own while they combined for 33 touchdowns on the ground. Of course, this isn’t an airtight BCS Bowl Game betting tip, but it should tip the scales towards the underdog if you’re still trying to figure out which team is the better take in what promises to be the best game of the year.

And there you have it, my golden nuggets of brain mana for the 2013 college football bowl game season. Study up, bet big and win big.