The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl betting line is the biggest post season spread on the board, and it’s also boasting the largest TOTAL of any game. The fact that sixth ranked Baylor is involved pretty much explains that in a nutshell. Can the Central Florida Knights keep this game close and reward their betting faithful?
At the beginning of the year, UCF became a college football darling in the sportsbook. They ripped off a 4-1 SU and ATS record to start the year, and legitimized their early season hype with a near-win against South Carolina. After that game, however, the oddsmakers put them in their cross hairs. UCF went undefeated but just 3-5 ATS the rest of the way though they did pick up a massive upset over Louisville along the way.
And the reason that they’re such massive Tostitos Fiesta Bowl betting line underdogs is because of who they barely beat. You can’t get that excited about a team that only edged teams like Houston, Temple, South Florida and SMU by an average of +3.3 points. UCF won the inaugural AAC title, but really who cares? Nobody, that’s who.
The oddsmakers also tried to keep with Baylor, but the awesome firepower that they unleashed on the country made it impossible. The Bears went a staggering 9-3 ATS and were favored by double-digits in 11 of those games. Their only defeat of the season was a 17-49 rout against Oklahoma State, but they bounced back to win the Big 12 title by demolishing Texas 30-10 in an ugly affair to end the year.
The Bears mounted the best scoring offense in the league hands down. Their 625.6 yards and 53.2 points per game where tops in the country, and their defense wasn’t that bad either. Baylor allowed just five opponents to score more than 20+ points against them, and their 21.2 points against average is very honest.
To be fair, I’ve liked UCF all season. They were a fun parlay stuffer as a moneyline play, but against the number the linemakers had them dead to rights. Baylor will eviscerate them handedly and quite frankly, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl betting line isn’t going to be nearly high enough to accommodate what Baylor is about to do to poor Central Florida.