Under The Radar Betting Picks – Week 10Noah Williams
Despite being two of the eight remaining unbeaten teams in the nation, 16th-ranked Fresno State and 17th-ranked Northern Illinois haven’t gotten nearly the national media attention as their blue chip brethren which means you can get in on an under the radar bet.
The Bulldogs and Huskies are going to get their turn to take the spotlight…right now thanks to this insightful analysis and betting breakdown of each teams’ respective Week 10 college football betting contests.
Let’s get started on the east coast where Northern Illinois will look to win on the road.
I don’t know how else to say it except to say that the Northern Illinois Huskies are smacking around their Metro Athletic Conference opponents like Chuck Norris used to do on Walker Texas Rangers.
All jokes aside, the Huskies are playing outstanding football this – and have actually gotten better defensively over the last three weeks. Northern Illinois (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) is coming off a convincing 59-20 Week 9 win over Eastern Michigan that helped them move to a bankroll-boosting 4-1 ATS over their last five games as they covered the spread as an insane 31.5-point home favorite.
The Massachusetts Minutemen (1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS) will be playing at home in this contest and they looked a lot better the last time out despite suffering a heartbreaking 31-30 home loss to Western Michigan while failing to cover the spread as a 4-point favorite to drop to 0-2 ATS over their last pair of games.
Game Analysis: Let’s be honest college football betting buffs…there’s a reason that Northern Illinois is favored to win this game by more than three touchdowns despite being on the road. It’s because they’re very good and UMass is mostly horrible.
The Huskies average 41.9 points per game this season while allowing 25.8 per contest defensively. Massachusetts is averaging a pitiful 10.6 points per game this season while allowing 28.9 per game defensively.
Northern Illinois has not allowed more than 20 points in any of their last three games after giving up 24 or more in each of their first five games of the season. Massachusetts may have put 30 points on the board the last time out, but they were facing a Western Michigan (1-8) team that is absolutely awful this season.
Northern Illinois has compiled a blistering 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 road games while also going 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a losing record while UMass has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and just 3-8 ATS in their L/11 games following an ATS loss.
More importantly, Huskies’ Heisman hopeful, senior quarterback Jordan Lynch is on fire, having thrown six touchdown passes and just one pick over his last three games while rushing for a mind-numbing 415 yards over his last two games.
Did You Know that, in 2012, Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch became the first player in Division I/FBS history to pass for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,500 yards ? The gifted signal-caller passed for 3,138 yards while rushing for 1,815 yards last season.
Thanks to some in-depth research, collegiate gridiron gamblers should also know that the Huskies are 17-3 SU and 12-8 ATS in their L/20 road games and a near perfect 19-1 SU but just 11-9 TS as a road favorite of more than eight points in their L/20 games.
Northern Illinois has topped the 40-point plateau four times this season while going over the 50-point mark twice. I like the Huskies to narrowly cover the spread here, seeing as how they won their last two games by 39 and 21 points respectively.
The Pick: Northern Illinois -24
The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) are struggling badly, having lost each of their last three games including a tough-to-swallow 27-22 Week 9 home loss to UNLV. Nevada fell to 1-3 ATS over their last four games by failing to cover the spread as a 6.5-point favorite.
The Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0 SU, 2-5 ATS) remained unbeaten this season and moved up the BCS national rankings by recording a thrilling 35-28 overtime win over San Diego State in Week 9 while also improving to 2-1 ATS over their last three by narrowly covering the spread as a 6.5-point road favorite.
Game Analysis: Now, while I don’t think there’s much question that Fresno State is going to win this game outright at home, I do believe the high point spread surrounding this Mountain West Conference matchup is going to make it difficult for the Bulldogs to cover.
Fresno State is 14-6 SU but just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 home games, though they are a more encouraging 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS over their last 10 home dates.
For me however, I’m going to urge college football bettors to back the Nevada Wolfpack as they’ve competed hard in dropping two of their L/3 games by an identical seven points and Fresno State possibly having an emotional letdown following their huge Week 9 overtime road win.
Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games while the road team in this Mountain West matchup has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. I like the Nevada Wolfpack to cover by competing hard until the very end of this one.
The Pick: Nevada +20.5 Points