Upset Picks College Football Conference Title WeekJosh Bailey
Former top-ranked Alabama lost for the first time in I can’t remember how long. Auburn’s 26-14 win over the Crimson Tide was one of the biggest college football betting upsets all season. Now which matchups present the best upset value with the start of conference championship play in Week 14? Keep reading to find out.
Upset Picks College Football Conference Title Week
I’ve got a trio of great college football upset picks, including one team that I genuinely believe is College Football Playoff worthy!
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal (9-3) vs. No. 11 USC Trojans (10-2)
When: Friday, December 1, 2017 at 8:00 PM ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Odds: USC -3
Sure, Sam Darnold and the USC Trojans have won four straight and they’re well-rested after getting this past weekend off, but their 49-14 Week 8 blowout loss against Notre Dame is still pretty fresh in my mind. And speaking of the Fighting Irish, Stanford just knocked off their annual rivals 38-20 on Saturday, The Cardinal has held each of their last three opponents and six of seven overall – to 22 points or less.
USC may have ended Stanford’s three-year winning streak in this rivalry by beating the Cardinals 42-24 early this season, but I genuinely believe that Stanford’s outstanding defense will help them get both, the upset win in the Pac-12 championship – and the payback they’re looking for. Stanford superstar running back Bryce Love – and not USC’s Sam Darnold – will be the best player on the field in this contest!
College Football Upset Pick: Stanford 31 USC 27
Troy Trojans (9-2) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-3)
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 7:30 PM ET
Where: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
Odds: Arkansas State -1.5
Troy has won five straight in increasingly impressive fashion including their 62-9 rout of Texas State on Friday. Arkansas State has won two in a row and got past UL-Monroe 67-50 in a high-scoring affair on Saturday. Still, there’s a reason why 56 percent of public bettors like the Trojans in this contest and I believe it’s because, right now, Troy looks like the better and more complete team. Troy has an outstanding defense that has limited each of their last eight opponents to 21 points or less and two of those opponents to 10 points or less.
While Arkansas State has the far more explosive offense, Troy is the far better defensive team. Right now, I can definitely see the streaking Trojans getting the outright upset in this matchup. Besides, the road team in this rivalry has gone 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
College Football Upset Pick: Troy 31 Arkansas State 28
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) vs. No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers (12-0)
When: Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 7:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Ohio State -5.5
I’m going to get right to the point by saying, I’m sick and tired of a lot of football ‘experts’ hating on unbeaten Wisconsin for what they see as a lack of a competitive schedule this season. Having said that, I’m also fully expecting the Badgers to pound Ohio State into submission with their powerful defense – to both, win the Big Ten title this season – and book their spot in the four-team College Football Playoff.
I wasn’t all that impressed with the Buckeyes’ 31-20 win over Michigan this past weekend and I can’t get past their stunning 55-24 road loss at Iowa, nor their 31-13 home loss against Oklahoma very early this season. Wisconsin is playing their best offense of the season at just the right time and has a powerful defense that has held six of their last seven opponents to 14 points or less and each of their last two opponents to 10 points or less. Wisconsin is ranked a stellar second in points allowed (12.0 ppg) and has a legitimate superstar in freshman running back Jonathan Taylor (1,806 yards, 13 Tds) that I expect to be the best player on the field in this contest!
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in their last four games while Ohio State has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five. The underdog in this conference rivalry is a nearly unblemished 5-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Simply put, I like the Wisconsin Badgers to shut down banged-up Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett – and shut up – ‘whiner’ head coach Urban Meyer in this huge conference championship matchup.