Upset Picks College Football Week 8Josh Bailey
With a trio of nationally-ranked title contenders all suffering damaging losses that significantly dropped them in this week’s new AP college football rankings, collegiate gridiron gamers are on the lookout for more upset value this coming weekend. If that’s the case, look no further – I’ve got your back thanks to my trio of Week 8 upset picks. Now, let’s get started.
Upset Picks College Football Week 8
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) at Kansas State Wildcats (3-3)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Odds: Oklahoma -12.5
Analysis: Ninth-ranked Oklahoma got past Texas 29-24 on Saturday but didn’t cover the spread as a 9-point favorite and now they’re a double-digit road favorite over a Kansas State team that is probably better than the Longhorns? Uh…no…it’s not gonna’ happen people. I know the Wildcats have dropped two straight and didn’t look good at all in their 26-6 loss to No. 4 TCU on Saturday, but I like Bill Snyder’s squad to cover the college football betting line as a +10.5-point home underdog in their Week 8 matchup against Oklahoma.
While Kansas State averages about 11 fewer points per game than Oklahoma, they also allow 2.3 fewer points per contest defensively. K-State is a consistent 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in the month of October while Oklahoma has gone 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. I like the K-State Wildcats to get the ‘upset’ ATS cover even though I don’t necessarily see them beating the Sooners outright, even at home.
Upset Pick Week 8: Kansas State +12.5
Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 3:30 PM ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Odds: Alabama -34
Analysis: Tennessee and Alabama are both well-rested following Week 7 byes. Tennessee has dropped two straight in getting shutout by Georgia 41-0 in Week 5 and falling to South Carolina 15-9 in Week 6.
Alabama throttled Arkansas 41-9 in Week 6 but struggled against Texas A&M in their 27-19 win one week earlier. 60 percent of college football bettors are already backing the Crimson Tide to cover the spread as insane 35-point home favorites and I’ll admit that there really isn’t much reason to back the Vols to cover the chalk – except that exactly what oddsmakers want you to believe!
I know Alabama is ‘super-powerful’ while Tennessee is mostly mediocre and has lost each of the last 10 meetings against their longtime SEC rivals, but the Vols are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and Alabama is an uninspiring 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS in their L/6 home games after giving up less than 20 points in their previous game.
Somehow, someway…I like Tennessee to find a way to cover the spread as a huge 34-point road dog. While an outright upset is most definitely not happening, if you’re looking for upset value then you should be encouraged by the fact that Tennessee has gone 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road dates against the mighty Crimson Tide.
Upset Pick Week 8: Tennessee +34
Kentucky Wildcats (5-1) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 4:00 PM ET
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Odds: Mississippi State -10.5
Analysis: I know that Mississippi State is playing at home in this Week 7 SEC showdown, but I’m still trying to figure out why the Bulldogs are a double-digit favorite against a Kentucky Wildcats team that has suffered just one loss this season – and that being a one-point loss to a Florida team they should have beaten.
Yes, the Dogs smacked BYU around in their 35-10 win on Saturday and they are the better statistical team on both sides of the ball in this contest, but Kentucky keeps finding ways to win and they’re well-rested after getting a bye this past weekend. More importantly, if you don’t know, the Wildcats have a star in dual threat quarterback Stephen Johnson that I expect to be the best player on the field in this contest. Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and a robust 8-2 ATS in their L/10 conference games while Mississippi State is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. I like Kentucky to get the ATS ‘upset’ as a +10.5-point road dog.