While this late-season Pac-12 pairing doesn’t hold the significance that many thought it would at the beginning of the 2015 season, college football bettors everywhere will be treated to what looks like an intriguing affair when the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Saturday.
Even better is the fact that you’re going to have a great chance to cash in with a potentially-winning wager thanks to this expert betting breakdown on Saturday’s Week 12 matchup. The college football week 12 spread favors the Oregon Ducks by 4-points to beat the USC Trojans. With that said and kickoff time quickly approaching, let’s get started.
A Closer Look At The USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks College Football Week 12 Betting Spread & Betting Preview
What: USC Trojans (7-3) at Oregon Ducks (7-3)
When: Saturday, November 21, 2015
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Where: Eugene, OR
Stadium: Autzen Stadium
Weather: 52° F | Decreasing Cloudiness
Spread: Oregon -4
Moneyline: USC +163 vs Oregon -200
Game Total: 71.5
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: USC vs Oregon
Bet The No. 22 USC Trojans at +4 Because…
In the 5 games since Helton was named the head coach, USC has trailed at the end of the 1st quarter each game (by an average of 7.2 points). Yet, surprisingly, the Trojans are 4-1 in those games and undefeated in conference play.
USC has won four straight games including their narrow 27-24 road win over Colorado on Saturday, although they never came close to covering the spread as a whopping 17-point road favorite.
More importantly, the Trojans can still win the Pac-12 South thanks to the recent struggles of Utah.
USC’s latest win helped them move into a first-place tie with the Utes and since they own the tiebreaker thanks to their 42-24 win over the Utes on Oct. 24, they could win the South under interim head coach Clay Helton.
Quarterback Cody Kessler completed 17 of 27 passes for 204 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the win while the USC defense limited Colorado to just seven second half points to help overcome a 17-6 halftime deficit.
"I told them that in 21 years of football, I’ve never been more proud of a group," Helton said. "They’ll never forget this moment, what we’ve been through this season. That’s what is really cool — kids who refused to fail."
USC is ranked 29th in scoring (36.4 ppg) and 41st in points allowed (22.7 ppg).
Bet The No. 23 Oregon Ducks at -4 Because…
The Ducks are 4-0 since QB Vernon Adams returned from almost four games with a broken finger.
The Ducks have also won four consecutive games coming into this contest including their stunning 38-36 win over now, No. 15 Stanford on Saturday while easily covering the NCAA college football betting line as an 8.5-point road dog.
Underrated quarterback Vernon Adams completed 10 of 12 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns while running back Royce Freeman added 105 yards and one score on 16 carries and two other running backs added one rushing score apiece.
Now back at full strength after breaking his finger in the season opener, Adams looked every bit as good as former Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota ever did.
Oregon has averaged a stellar 42.3 points and whopping 538.5 yards of total offense in winning their last four games.
"We’re definitely a different team than at the beginning of the season," said Adams. We’re playing a lot faster and I’m a lot more confident in the offense."
While the Ducks offense has been firing on all cylinders, it was linebacker Joe Walker that spurred the Ducks to victory when he broke up Stanford’s 2-point conversion attempt with 10 seconds remaining.
Oregon is ranked a stellar 10th in scoring (41.8 ppg) but just 115th in points allowed (37.1 ppg).
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
While I like the Oregon Ducks to get the big home win here, I have to admit that I’m a bit surprised that a whopping 61 percent of the betting public likes the Ducks to win and cover the spread.
Having said that, I genuinely believe the best wager for this matchup is to play the Over, even if the 71-point Over/Under Total does look a bit high.
The Over is 5-3 in Oregon’s last eight games and 4-1 in their last five games following either an SU or ATS win. The Over is also 39-16-1 in the Ducks’ last 56 home games and a pristine 4-0 in the last four meetings between these Pac-12 rivals. Each of Oregon’s last three games have all played over the set O/U Total for this contest and the Ducks have made a living out of simply outscoring their opponents over the last month.
Keep it simple college football bettors. There won’t be much defense being played in this contest. Play the Over and enjoy the shootout!