Week 5 SEC College Football Free Picks – Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M at Arlington, TexasJosh Bailey
The surprising sixth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies will look to keep their unblemished record intact when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks in a Week 5 SEC battle that could go a long way in deciding the postseason fates of both teams. Click here for more SEC college football betting odds from Sportbet.com.
Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
When: Saturday, September 27, 2014
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET
Spread: Texas A&M -12
If you’re looking to cash in on this all-SEC affair, then you’re going to enjoy this expert betting preview and analysis on this intriguing matchup that takes place at Jerry Jones’ AT&T Stadium on Saturday.
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) September 25, 2014
Week 5 College Football Free Picks Preview – Razorbacks Vs Aggies
Arkansas (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) is coming off an emphatic 52-14 Week 4 blowout win against overmatched Northern Illinois while covering the college football betting line as a 13.5-point home favorite.
The Razorbacks have gone 3-0 SU and ATS since losing their regular season opener 45-21 on the road at Auburn and failing to cover the spread as a 17-point road dog.
Arkansas has outscored Nicholls State, Texas Tech and Northern Illinois over the three-game stretch by a combined score of 174-49 and are averaging a stunning 55.3 points per game this season.
Junior quarterback Brandon Allen completed 15 of 22 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns in the Razorbacks’ last win. Allen has thrown eight touchdown passes and just one interception.
"We’ve made progress; we’ve done certain things better," Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema said. "I think, without a doubt, our guys have a lot more confidence than they maybe had a year ago. But until you’ve done it on a big stage and against a quality opponent like we’re going to see Saturday, it’s really just talk."
The Razorbacks are averaging a whopping 48.8 points per game to rank third in the country while also ranking inside the Top 100 in every meaningful defensive statistical category, including points allowed (23.5 ppg, 56th).
Arkansas’ offense is fueled by the rushing of its formidable duo of backs, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Collins leads the SEC with 490 rushing yards while Williams is fourth with 391 yards and an 8.1 yard-per-carry average.
Still, Arkansas will also be looking to snap its dismal 13-game SEC losing streak against the explosive Aggies who are seeking their first 5-0 start since 2001.
Texas A&M (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) enters this Week 5 matchup coming off a convincing 58-6 win over a beleaguered SMU team that recently saw former head coach June Jones resign shortly after the start of the season.
The Aggies are ranked second in the country and lead the SEC in scoring by putting up a whopping 55.2 points per contest, but more importantly, they have not missed a beat without former Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Johnny Manziel leading them.
Sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill has completed a blistering 69.8 percent of his passes this season for 1,359 yards and 13 TDs this season.
While Hill tossed his first interception of the season in his last performance, he also made a Manziel-like run of 58 yards by breaking two tackles.
"Yeah, I don’t like doing that, but I can," Hill said of that big run before addressing his overall play. "I think I’ve come along all right. I’ve had moments when I haven’t done too well, but I’ve had moments when I’ve done great. I think I just need to be more consistent."
Texas A&M had eight sacks in the win over SMU.
"It really started with the defense. The defense came out and played lights out," said Hill, who completed 16 of 22 passes for 265 yards with two touchdowns.
The Aggies are 4-0 for the first time since 2006 and have won every game this season by at least 24 points. Still the team has its share of critics.
— Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 24, 2014
"Everybody’s talking about how we haven’t played anybody yet, so now we’re going to start playing some SEC teams and we’ll get to show how good we are," Hill said after the Aggies’ 58-6 win at overmatched SMU on Saturday. "We’re just going to keep playing the way we have been and prove to everybody that we can play."
Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin said this Week 5 matchup will be a good measuring stick for his team.
"We’ll know a lot more about us," Sumlin said. "We’ll see (this) week. Big-time atmosphere. We accomplished some things, but we’ve still got to improve…The more you win, the more things build every week. More important each game becomes."
Game Analysis: While I like Texas A&M to win this game and keep their record unblemished, I don’t think there’s any way the Aggies cover the huge spread against an Arkansas team that is really playing solid football on both sides of the ball right now.
Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
While Texas A&M has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of September, you should also know the Aggies are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games and an identical 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record.
With the Aggies going 2-10 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and Arkansas going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, I think the handwriting is on the wall for a Razorbacks’ cover – if not the outright win.
My Week 5 College Football Free Picks: Arkansas +18 Points
If you like this pick, then you should also wager on North Carolina State +23 at home against Florida State.