Week 8 NCAAF Upset PicksJosh Bailey
My Week 8 NCAAF upset picks this week starts on Thursday when BYU travels to the blue field at Boise State. Can BYU keep it close in Boise or will the blue field cause too much confusion? How will Colorado handle a favored Stanford team after the Cardinals beat Notre Dame in South Bend this past Saturday? Will Auburn make it 4 wins in a row SU and ATS against Arkansas as a favorite on Oct. 22?
Week 8 NCAAF Upset Picks
BYU at #14 Boise State
When: Thursday, Oct. 20 at 10:15 pm ET
Where: Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, ID
Odds: BYU +7.5
Analysis: The Boise State Broncos are undefeated and ranked fourteenth in the nation. Boise State should beat BYU by at least 8 points, right?
Not so fast. BYU beat Michigan State on the road 31 to 14 before trouncing Mississippi State 28 to 21. The Cougars are a much better team than the point spread gives them credit for being. In fact, BYU is a terrific 5 and 2 ATS. Boise State is only 2 and 4 ATS this season.
When it comes to the trends, it’s all Cougars. Not only are the Cougars 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss but BYU is also 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two.
Cougars all the way.
Colorado at Stanford
When: Saturday, Oct. 22 at 3:00 pm ET
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
TV: Pac-12 Net
Odds: Colorado +3
Analysis: The Buffalos have to be considered the most improved team in the Pac 12 from a year ago. Colorado has been sort of a revelation in the Pac 12 this season. They go into this battle versus Stanford having trounced ASU 40 to 16.
The Buffalos’ defense allows only 20 points per game. As crazy as it sounds, Colorado is 7 and 0 against the spread this season. This includes covering against Michigan in a 28 to 45 loss as a +17.5 road dog earlier this year.
What could make Colorado’s job easier on Oct. 22 is due to Stanford’s injury issues. The Cardinal’s Christian McCaffrey, Alijah Holder and Daniel Marx are all listed as day to day.
Even if all 3 play, I like the Buffalos to get the job done.
#17 Arkansas at #21 Auburn
When: Saturday, Oct. 22 at 6:00 pm ET
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Odds: Arkansas +7.5
Analysis: Auburn has been one of the least impressive teams in the SEC this season. The Tigers beat LSU 18 to 13 in Les Miles’ last game as LSU’s coach. They beat ULM 58 to 7, which shouldn’t have impressed anybody. They took down Mississippi State, a team that couldn’t beat BYU this past Saturday, 38 to 14 in their last.
Auburn is on a 3 game winning streak, true, but it’s not an impressive winning streak. Arkansas goes into Jordan-Hare Stadium having beaten Ole Miss 34 to 30. I truly believe that Arkansas is just a better team than Auburn.
The Razorbacks could win this game straight up. The 7.5 points are a gift. I love Arkansas to cover the spread on Oct. 22.