Week 9 College Football Upset Picks

Arkansas Virginia Tech Belk Bowl Spread & ATS Pick

Week 9 College Football Upset Picks

This has been a season of college football upsets. You can just look to the past week for evidence.

Second ranked Ohio State opened as a 19.5-point favorite on spread and closed -17.5 at Penn State. The Buckeyes lost 24-21. It was the Buckeyes’ first loss on the road under Urban Meyer (now 20-1). The Buckeyes can still reach the NCAAF playoff by winning out and winning the Big Ten, so the loss doesn’t derail their season.

How did Penn State pull of the upset of the year?

Week 9 College Football Upset Picks

There are 3 games in Week 9 College Football that I think could lead to upsets. Can Virginia Tech cover a spread on the road versus rival Pittsburgh? How will TCU’s defense fair against Texas Tech’s number one ranked offense? Will it be Maryland or Indiana to secure the ATS win on Oct. 27?

#25 Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
When:  Thursday, Oct. 27 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: ESPN
Odds: Pittsburgh +3.5

Analysis: Virginia Tech was masterful in a 37 to 16 win over the Miami Hurricanes in their last game. The Hokies easily covered a -4.5 spread as a home favorite. It was VA Tech’s fourth cover ATS in their last five games. But, just because VA Tech covered against Miami at home, it doesn’t mean that they’re going to cover against Pittsburgh on the road.

In fact, all the head to head trends point to Virginia Tech having a horrible time of it on Thursday, Oct. 27. VA Tech is 1-9 against the spread in the last 9 meetings against Pittsburgh. In the last 6 games in Pittsburgh, the Hokies have gone 0 and 6 ATS.

Virginia Tech lost to Syracuse on the road as a -23 road favorite a couple of weeks ago. I don’t see the Hokies winning this game, much less covering ATS.  

College Football Week 9 Upset Pick: Pittsburgh

Texas Tech at TCU
When: Saturday, Oct. 29 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Ft. Worth, TX
TV: ESPN 2
Odds: Texas Tech +7.5

Analysis: TCU’s program is starting to resemble Texas Tech’s. The Horned Frogs used to be known for playing tough, tight, defense. Not anymore. Now, TCU is known for outscoring their opponents. TCU’s defense allows 419 yards and over 30 points per game.

Texas Tech doesn’t even play defense, which is why TCU is favored in this matchup. But Texas Tech can score with any team in college football. I think giving 7.5 points to a team that averages 640 yards and 50 points per game is ludicrous.

Could TCU cover?  Sure, but I’ll take the points because the onus will be on the Horned Frogs to keep up and as good as their offense is, I don’t think it can against the Red Raiders. 

College Football Week 9 Upset Pick: Texas Tech

Maryland at Indiana
When:  Saturday, Oct. 29 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
TV: ESPN U
Odds: Maryland +5

Analysis: The odds in this game are somewhat strange to me. Indiana is a decent team. But so is Maryland. Neither team has an edge in this battle.

Indiana is 2 and 5 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Hoosiers are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record. They are 0 and 5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.    

Maryland is a horrifying 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. But, Maryland gets 5 points against the home team Hoosiers in this matchup on Saturday. I’ll take the 5 points.

College Football Week 9 Upset Pick: Maryland