No position in the NFL is shallower than tight end. There are only two TEs that you should reach for in the draft. Even with Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham legitimizing the idea of using a first-round pick on a tight end over the last few seasons, they both have question-marks to erase early in the season.
How will Gronk play without Tom Brady for four games?
How will Pete Carroll use Graham?
2015 Vegas NFL TE Props Vs TE Fantasy Rankings
Vegas and fantasy football players will definitely be on the same page when it comes to prop bets for tight-ends. The first player drafted in almost every fantasy football draft will be New England’s Rob Gronkowski. Even though Gronk’s quarterbacks, Tom Brady, is likely to miss the first 4 games of the NFL Regular Season, Gronk’s numbers should be close to the 82 receptions, 1,184 yards and 12 touchdowns that he racked up in 2014. Gronk is easily the top-rated tight-end in the NFL. Every prop that has to do with a tight-end, as long as it’s a positive prop, is going to have Gronk listed with the lowest odds. Gronk will have a monster season because either Matt Flynn or Jimmy Garoppolo will have to lean on him while Brady waits out the suspension.
Who Will Have More Receiving Yards
Jimmy Graham +105
Rob Gronkowski -125
The only other tight-end that is likely to be drafted early in fantasy football is Seattle’s Jimmy Graham. The thing about Graham this season is that he should get yards and touchdowns, but he may not catch as many footballs as he did when Drew Brees at New Orleans was throwing the pigskin to him. He’s not as good of a blocker as he could be. Seattle’s football team is still going to run the football. Don’t expect 85 catches, 889 yards and 10 touchdowns this season like what Graham put up last season.
After Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, the list of tight-ends gets somewhat thin. Greg Olsen at Carolina, Travis Kelce at Kansas City, Martellus Bennet at Chicago, Julius Thomas at Jacksonville, Jason Witten at Dallas, Zach Ertz at Philadelphia, Dwayne Allen at Indianapolis and Jordan Cameron at Miami make up the rest of the Top 10 on most fantasy tight-end rankings lists. Ertz could have a break out season in a Gronkowski way. Chip Kelly’s offensive system is based around the running game and making short passes. Ertz played at Stanford. Kelly knows him well from his days at Oregon. In Ertz’s rookie season, he caught 58 footballs for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns. Expect Ertz to be a huge part of Kelly’s offense on most Sundays.
The others on the list can go either way. A steady player is Jason Witten at Dallas. Witten won’t win any prop bets for you, but he will put up decent fantasy numbers. Plus, if there is a hiccup in the Cowboys’ rushing attack without DeMarco Murray, Witten might improve big time off of the 703 yards and 5 touchdowns he garnered last season. Backing any of the others is a crapshoot in both NFL TE Vegas props and in fantasy leagues.