2016 NFL MVP Picks

2016 NFL MVP Picks

2016 NFL MVP Picks

It shouldn’t be any surprise that Cam Newton, the reigning NFL MVP, is this year’s favorite to win the 2016 NFL MVP. Newton not only is a unique player but he also plays in the NFC South Division where Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans reside. But is the favorite the best bet to win the NFL’s most prestigious individual player award? 

Analyzing My 2016 NFL MVP Picks

Since1957 when the NFL MVP award was first doled out, quarterbacks have won this award (39) more times than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

The Odds-On Favorite Pick Pick To Become The 2016 NFL MVP: Cam Newton +500

Newton had one of the most remarkable seasons by a single player in NFL history. That’s why he won the MVP. He passed for 35 touchdowns to only 10 interceptions. He threw for 3,837 yards. He rushed for 636 yards and a 4.8 yard per carry average. Newton scored 10 touchdowns on the ground last season.

It’s almost a no-brainer that Newton is going to be in the running for the NFL MVP this season. After all, he dominated defenses. But, it’s hard for me to back Cam to win it 2 years in a row. The last player to do that was Peyton Manning who won it in 2008 and 2009 with the Indianapolis Colts. The last player to win 2 in a row before Peyton was…Peyton who won it in 2003 and 2004. Cam could win a second straight MVP Award. I just don’t think he’s worth a bet to do so at the odds. 

The Smart Pick Pick To Become The 2016 NFL MVP: Russell Wilson +900

This is the season when Seattle Seahawk QB Russell Wilson takes control of the NFL. If the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl, and right now they are the favorites, it won’t be because of their defense. It will be because of Russell Wilson who was fantastic last season. Wilson completed 68% of his passes for 4,024 yards. He threw 34 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. He rushed for 553 yards and a 5.4 yards per carry average. I expect Wilson to have better numbers in 2016 because the Seahawks know that leaning on Russell is their best shot at winning the Super Bowl.

The Longshot Pick To Become The 2016 NFL MVP: Tony Romo +2000

It all depends on his health. But if the Dallas QB can stay healthy, he could be in line for his first ever NFL MVP. The Cowboys’ offense should be loaded. RB Ezekiel Elliott might be Adrian Peterson with better hands. WR Dez Bryant returns healthy as does TE Jason Witten. Romo is a very good QB. With the talent that he has this season around him, he might be a great QB. At the odds, Romo is worth a look. 

The Complete 2016 NFL MVP Odds

PLAYER MVP Odds (7/15)
Cam Newton +500
Aaron Rodgers +700
Ben Roethlisberger +700
Andrew Luck +800
Russell Wilson +900
Carson Palmer +1000
Adrian Peterson +1200
Tom Brady +1200
Tony Romo +2000
Derek Carr +2500
Le’Veon Bell +2500
JJ Watt +2500
Drew Brees +2500
Rob Gronkowski +2500
Eli Manning +2500