NFL 2nd Half Betting Tips & StrategiesJosh Bailey
Betting the second half of NFL games is a popular pass-time. It is a great way to either double down or make up for blunders on your first half or even the game bets. Now the question remains on how to maximize your chances of winning your second half NFL bets in the 2016 season.
My NFL Second Half Betting Tips & Strategies
Since the second half NFL odds have to be generated within seconds of the first half ends, if you know what to look for you can beat the book by picking the smart bet. But should when should you bet the second half to double down or to middle/hedge your bets to mitigate risk? Keep reading to find out answers to those questions and more.
Don’t Bet Blindly Against The Public Pick
After crunching the numbers, second half favorites have gone 1,367 and 1,348 ATS in NFL games since 2003. That’s less than 50%.
A lot of why the public might be right on second half teams is because they are so often wrong when betting on teams before the game starts. The public bets on favorites 80% of the time before an NFL game starts. By halftime the favorite isn’t always the favorite. This could account for why going against the public before a game starts usually leads to profits while going against the public during halftime doesn’t.
Betting On Second Half Road Teams Is A Smart Strategy
While going against the public with second half favorites hasn’t done well since 2003, betting on second half road teams since 2003 has. Second half road teams are 1,400 – 1,294 ATS since 2003. That’s 52%.
The answer to why this happens is obvious. The public, no matter if it’s before an NFL game starts or during halftime, always sees more value in the home team than the road team. Since the public always overvalues home teams, it stands to reason that betting on road teams can lead to profits.
Bet On Second Half Underdogs Of At Least 7-Points.
These underdogs have gone 131-90, over 59%, in regular season games. The win rate in conference games is much higher. Why? Because of familiarity between teams in conference games. Most of the winners were large underdogs on the spread who were winning at halftime.
One example of this happening last season was when San Diego and Oakland faced off in Week 16. The San Diego Chargers were up 17 to 10 over the Oakland Raiders on the road in that matchup. The Chargers ended up losing 23 to 20.
Bet On Second Half NFL Teams With Large First Team Leads
Betting on second half teams with a large lead are profitable 53% of the time. The profitability rises significantly when the lead is at 17 points or more.
This also has to do with public perception. If a team is up by 17 points or more at halftime, the public most often gravitates to the team that’s behind at half-time. The reason being is because the thought process is that NFL coaches will make adjustments to get the losing team back into the game.
This doesn’t always happen. In fact, that usually doesn’t happen. Often times, there is a legitimate reason that a team is ahead by 17 points or more at halftime. The most obvious is that they’re just a better team.
To summarize, these are three of the most effective strategies for NFL second half spread bettors:
- Take large second half underdogs.
- Take teams that are winning big at halftime.
- Fade big pre-game favorites that are losing at halftime.