Updated Odds to Win the NFC

5 Reasons To Bet The Under at Super Bowl XLVIII

If you’re going to bet the under at Super Bowl XLVIII, you’re going to be hoping that the Seattle defense can put the clamps on Peyton Manning. It’s a lofty prayer considering that Manning has been blasting the NFL all season long with touchdowns galore, but Richard Sherman and the Seahawks secondary are definitely up to the task.

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are 2 point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Starts: 02/02/2014 6:30PM
MetLife Stadium, One MetLife Stadium Dr.
East Rutherford, New Jersey

5 Reasons To Bet The Under at Super Bowl XLVIII

1) Seattle’s Defense Is For Real

I might as well keep talking about Seattle’s incredible defense since that’s what I started with. Listen, I went back and tried to find holes in Seattle’s defensive numbers and I couldn’t fine a single one. Two teams have thrown for more than 300 yards against the Seahawks: Houston in Week 4 and New Orleans in the wild card round. The crazy part? Nobody else has thrown for more than 214 yards. Going up against Peyton Manning is an imposing task, but Seattle has played very well against every type of offense and quarterback they’ve been lined up against. They’re as consistently superb on defense as you can get, even though they don’t have the same personality as the 2002 Buccaneers, the 2000 Ravens or the 2006 Bears.

2) The Broncos Could Play Conservatively

We’ve seen offensive juggernauts stampede their way to the Super Bowl and then inexplicably slam on the brakes in the championship game. It happened to the 2002 Oakland Raiders and the 2007 New England Patriots. Why would the 2013 Denver Broncos do the same?

Seattle’s secondary isn’t just a stat monster in preventing yards and touchdowns, they also lead the league with 28 interceptions, which was five more than second-place Buffalo. I’m not suggesting that Denver should be scared of the Seahawks secondary, but they might be. Keep in mind that avoiding mistakes is pivotal to maintaining momentum and leaving points off the board. There’s a massive chance that Peyton and the Broncos switch gears and lean on Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball instead of testing Sherman and company.

3) The Under Is Generally A Safer Bet

Historically this bet has been a coin flip. The Super Bowl has provided a record of 24-23 O/U in its last 47 renditions, but in recent games the UNDER has held more often than not. The last nine Super Bowls have provided a record of 3-6 O/U and the average total in those games has been 48.2. It’s not the most encouraging reason to bet the under at Super Bowl XLVIII, but at least now you know the nitty gritty.

4) Seattle Went 6-10 O/U This Season

This is something you’d frankly expect from a defense that performed the way it did all season. The Seahawks have also held the under in their last seven games straight, facing totals that were in the mid-forties range. They simply have a habit of holding the under. Whether they can do that against the best offense in the league remains to be seen, but they also squashed New Orleans – the second best offense in the league – twice.

5) Denver Has gone 0-5 O/U In Their Last 5 Games

Didn’t see that one coming did you? The Broncos went 11-5 O/U throughout the regular season, but haven’t pushed the OVER in any of their last 5 games. And frankly, they haven’t come close. Keep in mind that all of those games had totals ranging from 53.0 to 56.5 points. This says as much about their competition as it does about Denver’s better-than-advertised defense, but the trend slides heavily in their favor. One of the biggest reasons to bet the under at Super Bowl XLVIII is that Seattle and Denver are a combined 0-10 O/U in each of their last 5 games.

Posted in NFL