AFC Championship – Bet The Over or Under?Noah Williams
Some gamblers will idiotically tell those that bet the over or under on NFL totals are a fools errand, especially when it’s graded so high. The AFC Championship total is a mountainous 55.0 points. If this was the total on the past 14 Manning-Patriots games, the record would be 6-7-1 O/U. This isn’t as clear cut as you might hope it is, which is not so surprising given that the oddsmakers are trying to force you to make a tough decision.
But trust me on this – there is a good bet when it comes to this side.
Not so surprisingly, the Broncos went a hefty 11-5 against the OVER/UNDER which was the second best record in terms of betting on big scores. The Vikings also had a 12-4 O/U record, but that was more so because they couldn’t stop anyone from scoring on them.
The size of this total should make you squeamish regardless of Denver’s offensive abilities. The Broncos faced totals of 50.0+ an unreal 12 times this season (twelve!!!) and went 7-5 O/U in those games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Denver games have hit the UNDER in the past four outings…and all of those games had spreads greater than fifty points.
Ironically, New England was the better for those that bet the over later in the season. Brady’s bunch practically pushed the over by themselves down the stretch and are 6-1 O/U in their last 7 matchups. They faced just two 50.0+ totals this season, going 1-1 O/U in those games. They hit the under in a 23-21 win over the Bills during the opening weekend of the year and then rewarded those that bet the over in the Patriots-Broncos matchup from Week 12 with an end result of 34-31 against a total of 54.0 points.
So this should seem like an easy call right? After all, the third time the Patriots hit the OVER when facing a 50.0+ line was last weekend when they obliterated the Colts 43-22. That all depends.
Either you believe that Belichik is going to architect an ideal game plan to slow down Peyton Manning or the Broncos and Patriots are going to engage in a scoreboard blitz. How you bet the over or under relies on how you think both teams perform in a game, and while both of these teams have defenses that can shock you, they also have cutthroat offensive commanders who know how to find the end zone. Manning and Brady are the only two quarterback to throw for 50 touchdowns or more in the past decade. The pieces are there for a chase on the OVER.
My instinct with totals is always to lean towards the OVER because I hate rooting against touchdowns. I’m still a fan underneath all my handicapping and gambling. There’s a slim chance that Manning stumbles in this one, or Brady’s supporting cast underwhelms like they’re supposed to. But I can’t bet on that.
Both of these quarterbacks and teams have played full tilt heading down the stretch and the weather should also cooperate with a high scoring affair. So when you bet the over or under this weekend, do the right thing and join me as we cheer for all the touchdowns.