New England will host a familiar foe as home favorites on the AFC divisional playoff betting line, and though the cast of characters is different than when Peyton Manning led the Colts, this team feels very similar. It’s hard to compare a cast that includes Donald Brown, T.Y. Hilton and god-knows-who to the record setting bunch of Colts that Manning led in to the playoffs countless times, but Andrew Luck has the same type of effect on the public. They believe in him. Click here to view this matchup’s betting trends.
That’s why almost two-thirds of the betting community is vaulting themselves at the Colts on this AFC divisional playoff betting line. You could make the argument that Indianapolis defies all logic. They’re young, very inexperienced and are playing without Reggie Wayne, who remains the only real veteran presence on this offence. And what’s happened? The Colts have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 games. Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.
Of course that includes their historical comeback against Kansas City last weekend, when the Chiefs took their foot of the pedal and Luck led a triumphant comeback from a 28-point deficit to win the game 45-44. You don’t have to go in to any advanced stats to know that Luck is that big of a difference maker, and if you had any doubts about his overall abilities, last Saturday should’ve made you a believer.
The problem is that riding the Colts at this point seems like a far fetched commodity. Sure, they’re getting a ton of points to sit on with a hefty AFC divisional playoff betting line, but it’s also that large for a very good reason. Do you honestly, truly believe that the Indianapolis Colts can win this game or are you hunting for a cover?
Because now is the perfect time to remind you that in four losses this season the Colts lost by an average of -18.3 points. That included getting barn stormed by Arizona, Cincinnati and St. Louis while also barely losing to Miami in Week 2. The point is simple – when Indianapolis loses, they usually get stomped in to the ground.
At any point leading up to the Chiefs-Colts contest last weekend, you could’ve talked me in to Kansas losing. Andy Reid’s team finished poorly, and Andrew Luck is as much of a gamer as there is at his position. They had a legitimate, puncher’s chance in that game because their opponent – as a franchise and as a roster – had never proven itself in the playoffs.
The difference here is that you’re talking about the New England Patriots. You’re trying to suggest that Pagano can outduel Belichik, or that Brady won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with Luck the same way Alex Smith couldn’t respond when he got socked in the mouth a few times. These are really risky bets to make with your hard earned money.
The Patriots are coming off a much needed week of rest, have never been blown out once this season and are entering the playoffs with 5-1 SU record. The only reason not to bet on the Patriots is because they’re also 3-3 ATS in those games.
By all measures, this should be a close game, but that doesn’t mean it will be. I’m counting on a regular season anomaly to resurface in this game: the Colts tragic habit of getting crushed in losses. Beating the Chiefs in a shocking upset is one thing, but we’re talking about Kansas and Alex Smith here. Against Brady and the Patriots, there’s no way the Colts can come back from a huge deficit. If the Chiefs could drop 38 points (and then 44) on the Colts in a blink of an eye, imagine what the Patriots are about to do. This is going to be ugly.