A Closer Look At The New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Updated Spread & My Expert Pick

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

The final Sunday of the 2014 NFL Regular Season is here, which means that football handicappers have to be excited about NFL Week 17 ATS Picks.

Buffalo battles New England in a game that New England needs to win in order to secure home field advantage and Buffalo needs to win to have any shot at the playoffs. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh battle each other for the AFC North title while Oakland travels to Denver to take on one of the best teams in the NFL.

Analyzing My NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
When: Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
TV:  CBS
Betting Line: New England -10.5

Analysis: The Patriots were all out to beat the New York Jets 17 to 16 in Week 16. As a 10 point home favorite, New England didn’t play well at all, but there is a caveat to that. The Jets always play the Patriots tough and New England is still 5 and 2 against the spread this season in their home games.

The Buffalo Bills are 4 and 3 against the spread in their away games this season. That’s a very good record, but the Bills were hot, they had won 4 out of their last 5 games and had gone 5 and 0 against the spread in those games, before losing 24 to 26 straight up to Oakland in Week 16.

The loss, for all intents and purposes, ended Buffalo’s chances at making it to the playoffs. The Bills will be motivated, but they won’t be as motivated as New England on Sunday. The Patriots have to win to secure home field advantage. New England figures to roll.  

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick: New England Patriots -10.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 8:25 pm ET
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Pittsburgh -3.5

Analysis: It’s tough to look past Pittsburgh in this game. The Steelers have already secured a spot in the AFC Playoffs, but the winner takes home the AFC North trophy. Pittsburgh’s defense has been awesome lately. It is now allowing only 354.5 yards per game. Opponents are rushing for only 98.7 yards per game against the Pittsburgh D.

Those are terrific stats because the Steelers also have an awesome offense. QB Ben Roethlisberger leads an attack that averages 415.2 yards per matchup and scores 27 points per. Cincinnati could have trouble keeping up with Pittsburgh on the offensive side of things. Cincy rushes the ball well, but Andy Dalton is averaging only 218 yards per game.

The defense isn’t bad, but it’s not good enough to keep the Steelers from putting up points.  

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 4:25 pm ET
TV: CBS

Analysis: This is a mismatch of gigantic proportions. Yes, Oakland beat Buffalo at home, but the Raiders are nowhere close to being as good as Denver. Not only that, but Denver’s defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL versus the rush.

The Broncos allow only 71 yards per game on the ground. Oakland’s David Carr has the makings of a very good quarterback in the NFL. He just needs to develop more and the Raiders have to stick with him. But Carr has no shot at putting up points against a Broncos’ D led by DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller because the Raiders’ rushing attack won’t be able to support him.

Ware and Miller could single-handedly put Carr onto the bench in this game while the Broncos won’t need to play Peyton Manning in order to score against a Raiders’ defense that just doesn’t have enough to stop the Denver rushing attack. Broncos all the way.

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick: Denver Broncos

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