Don’t Make These Super Bowl Betting MistakesNoah Williams
Are you a first time Super Bowl bettor? Have bet everything but the Super Bowl? Do you only bet when your home team is on the field? With Super Bowl 51 on the horizon, NFL betting enthusiasts of all levels are looking high and low for the best betting advice and Super Bowl 51 analysis they can find.
To that end, we’re offering up a list of five costly mistakes that Super Bowl 51 bettors need to avoid making when Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons look to take down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots when they square off in Houston on February 5.
Now, let’s get started.
5 Avoidable Super Bowl Betting Mistakes
Bet Early or Bet Late
Many Super Bowl bettors make their wagers on the big game either too early or too late. Let’s take the Super Bowl 51 odds for example. After opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the New England Patriots are currently solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta at almost every sportsbook there is.
Now, if you plan on backing the Patriots, then you likely want to get Tom Brady and company early as the odds for New England winning Super Bowl 51 almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter.
Conversely, if you’re thinking about betting on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the upset, you may want to wait a while longer to make your wager in the hopes that the Super Bowl 51 betting line will move closer to 4 or even 4.5 points. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog, then you could be losing a valuable point or point and a half.
As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement whether big or small – and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect some more movement before Super Bowl 51 takes place.
If you didn’t know, the vast majority of Super Bowl bets (97 percent) don’t come in until about 48 hours before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points. If you already got New England at 2.5 or 3 points, then you should know that by waiting too long you could lose that same 1-1.5 points that you’d gain of you were betting on Atlanta.
Polar-Opposite Props Bets
When it comes to props betting, the simple thought process is that you should start with the spread and Over/Under total and make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting.
For instance, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to light up the Patriots for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for either Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.
Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.
The Price Isn’t Always Right
Novice bettors often make the massive mistake of not paying attention to the juice attached to specific wagers, particularly when the Super Bowl rolls around and a multitude of props odds become available in addition to the usual side, moneyline and total odds.
Many times props odds wagers will carry ridiculous price tags that are set up to draw attention to the wager or have been set after the betting market for the wager has been firmly established.
Think like a professional and make sure you’re wary of high or overpriced betting lines. Most pros in the industry won’t pay more than -150 for any wager and that is a timeless technique that you may want to incorporate into your own betting style.
Super Bowl Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines
I can tell you from personal knowledge that I know several NFL football bettors that chase lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘wishful’ wagers that don’t have the value they should or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.
Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 52 total points or Over 24 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that Super Bowl bettors should avoid.
In today’s fast-paced, high-tech times where information flows as easily as the Mississippi River, Super Bowl bettors can often get an overload of media exposure that alters their way of thinking – and betting on the Super Bowl.
While being knowledgeable and making informed wagers is certainly part of the prescription for Super Bowl betting success, media overexposure can often be detrimental as well.
For instance, let’s say you’re initial thought on Super Bowl 51 was that Atlanta was a great pick at +3 against New England, but after watching some ESPN and NFL Network experts rave about Tom Brady’s postseason success, you begin to have second thoughts about picking the Falcons to cover.
Maybe they’ve gone online and read so many Brady, Bill Belichick and New England Patriots-related articles that they then go against their initial thought and change their minds on their pick for Atlanta.
Remember, with two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, every single matchup and every single aspect of the game will be analyzed to an endless degree, often times incorrectly by those who claim to be ‘experts’.
Believe it or not, there is such a thing as an overload of media overexposure. Don’t let this new-age phenomenon alter your initial thought process and remember, going with your first mind is usually the right choice.
Remember, to keep your Super Bowl bets within your means. That way, you’ll be able to enjoy the big game whether you come out on top or not.