Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks

Bengals Vs Patriots Spread & ATS Pick

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will look for a second win in a row against AFC North opponents when they host the struggling Cincinnati Bengals. The NFL Week 6 spread favors the Pats by 8-points to beat the Cardiac Cats.

The game kicks-off on CBS this Sunday, October 16th at 1:00 PM ET, from the Gillette Stadium, in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

Cincinnati Bengals Vs New England Patriots Spread & ATS Pick

The Patriots are 4-1 this season and appear to only be getting healthier and better each week while the Bengals are 2-3 this season and they are looking to turn things around so they can keep their string of years of making the playoffs alive. 

What: Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)
When: Sunday, October 16, 2016
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET  
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Spread: Patriots -8
Moneyline: Cincinnati +340 at New England -425
Game Total: 47
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Cincinnati vs New England

Why Bet The Cincinnati Bengals To Beat The Patriots

The Bengals had one of their worst games of the Marvin Lewis era last week. Their 28-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys dropped them to 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS this season. Cincinnati averages 18.4 rushing yards per game (24th) and allows points per game (16th).

Cincinnati averages 282.5 passing yards per game (5th). QB Andy Dalton (1503 yards, 5 TDs & 2 INTs) completed 29 of 41 passes for 269 yards against the Cowboys. He threw two touchdowns in garbage time. Both were tossed to journeyman WR Brandon LaFell (21 rec, 276 yards, 2 TDs). WR A.J. Green (36 rec, 518 yards, 2 TDs) caught only four balls for 50 yards last week after torching the Dolphins with 173 receiving yards the week before.

The Bengals average 83.8 rushing yards per game (25th). RB Jeremy Hill (62 car, 233 yards, 3 TDs) hasn’t recorded a single100-yards game this season. He re-injured his chest and his status is unknown for this game. RB Gio Bernard (9 car, 50 yards, 0 TD) will see the lion’s share of the carries if Hill is unable to go.

The Bengals have the 15th-ranked total defense in the NFL. They give up 225.0 passing yards per game (11th) and 114.0 rushing yards per game (19th). Cincinnati has recorded ten sacks this season (16th). Karlos Dansby has 29 tackles, and Carlos Dunlap has 4.0 sacks.

Why Bet The New England Patriots To Beat The Bengals

Tom Brady is back and it was the Browns who suffered his wrath last week. The Pats won by a score 33-13. New England is now 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. They average 22.4 points per game (17th) and allow 14.8 points per game (4th).

QB Tom Brady (406 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) completed 28 of 40 passes against the Browns and posted a 127.7 passer rating. He hit seven different receivers. Two of them, WR Chris Hogan (12 rec, 236 yards, 1 TD) and TE Rob Gronkowski (6 rec, 120 yards, 0 TD) each recorded 100+ receiving yards last week. TE Martellus Bennett (21 rec, 314 yards, 4 TDs) was the biggest benefactor of Brady’s return as he caught six passes for 67 yards and three touchdowns.

The Patriots average 128.0 rushing yards per game (4th). RB LeGarrette Blount (106 car, 389 yards, 5 TDs) only had 37 yards against the Browns, but he scored a touchdown.

New England has the 16th-ranked total defense in the NFL. They allow 259.0 passing yards per game (19th) and 86.4 rushing yards per game (9th). The Patriots have nine sacks last season (21st). Logan Ryan leads the team with 36 tackles, and Jabaal Sheard has 3.0 sacks.

Betting Trends For This Matchup:

  • Cincinnati is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
  • Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home

Expert ATS Pick & Final Score Prediction

This will be a high scoring game and I expect the Bengals to make this game as physical as possible. Look for Cincinnati to go to the running game and I see this one being close so the play here is the Bengals and the points. 

My final score prediction is Cincinnati 24, New England 31.

Posted in NFL