Bet the Under in These NFL Week 11 Low Scoring Games

Bet the Under in These NFL Week 11 Low Scoring Games

Betting the under on games can be ulcer inducing and heart damaging at the best of times. There are 2 minute drills, garbage time points and of course the worst of it the hail mary. Therefore you need to arm yourself with as much data as you can before you click submit on your weekly under the total bets.

Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Date: Thursday, Nov. 13
Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Miami, FL
Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
TV Info: NFL Network
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Bills Vs Dolphins
Point Spread: Dolphins -4.5
Moneyline: Bills +185 vs Dolphins -215
Game Total: 42

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are very similar teams and even their matching 5-4 records agree.

Both defenses can rush the passer with the Bills as top sacking team in NFL with 34 sacks, and the Dolphins at 4th with 28. Both can cover the pass with the Dolphins as the number two best defensive unit in that aspect, and the Bills rank 7th.

The NFL betting trends have the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami.

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Kansas City, MO
Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
TV Info: FOX
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Seahawks Vs Chiefs
Point Spread: PK
Moneyline: Seahawks -102 vs Chiefs -118
Game Total: 42.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the NFL without a passing TD to a wide receivers as this is a run team first, outlet pass to Jamaal Charles second and finally short passes to TE Travis Kelce. Teams like this tend to shorten the game with long drives. Shorter games = lower scoring games.

The Chiefs have the 5th best rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 135.8 yards through the ground, and seven of their nine games this season have ended UNDER the game total, including last week’s victory 17-13 over the NY Giants.

The Kansas City defense is second in the NFL In points allowed per game at 16.8 and seventh in yards allowed per game at 320.9.

The Seattle Seahawks are a similar team. Unable to get the passing game going they rely on the run which is supported by the numbers. They are ranked second to last in the NFL in passing, but tops in the league in rushing, averaging close to 171 yards per game. The combination of RB Marshawn Lynch and the scramble abilities of QB Russell Wilson make this team a hard to stop on the ground, which again shortens the game.

The Seahawks defense has rebounded to their 2013 form and they are allowing 21.2 points and a third ranked 307 yards per game.

Bet the under.

Matchup: Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Glendale, AZ
Stadium: U of Phoenix Stadium
TV Info: FOX
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Lions Vs Cardinals
Point Spread: Cards -2
Moneyline: Lions +110 vs Cardinals -130
Game Total: 41

While the Detroit Lions have the best defense statically in the NFL while the Arizona Cardinals defense is more opportunistic, forcing more turnovers than anybody else in the NFC with 19, only behind the Houston Texans in the entire league.

If Arizona wants to keep winning they will have to trust almost entirely on what their defense can do on the field, now that starting QB Carson Palmer is done for the season. The Arizona Cardinals have just one loss this season and they lead the NFC West. The Cardinals offense is averaging 24.8 points and 330.9 yards per game but they are plus 12 in turnover ratio. Defensively the Cardinals are allowing a NFL fourth best 18.9 points and 352.8 yards per game and have been outstanding.

The Detroit Lions are 7-2 this season and they sit in first place in the NFC North. The Lions have played through big injuries all season and they are finally getting healthy. The Lions offense is averaging 20.2 points and 340.1 yards per game and they are plus two in turnover ratio.

The Lions defense is ranked first in points allowed per game at 15.8 and yards allowed per game at 283.4 and they have been rock solid. 

Megatron could spoil my under pick in this matchup, but overall I expect a low scoring affair in this one.

Posted in NFL