Bills Vs Patriots Spread & ATS PickNoah Williams
This will be the last time you see Foxboro without Tom Brady this season as the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills. The game kicks-off on CBS this Thursday, October 2 at 1:00 PM ET, from the Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts.
The Week 4 NFL spread favors the Pats by 6.5-points to beat the Bills. Now, let’s find out if you should bet on Buffalo or back New England. Happy hunting!
Buffalo Bills Vs New England Patriots Spread & ATS Pick
Buffalo comes into this game with a 1-2 record, dropping the first pair of games on the season but bouncing back to get a win in Week 3 against the Cardinals 33-18. As for the Patriots, they’re sitting at 3-0—which is quite an achievement when you factor in that they’ve been missing their Hall-of-Fame QB Tom Brady for the whole season so far.
What: Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)
When: Sunday, October 2, 2016
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Spread: Patriots -6.5
Moneyline: Buffalo +250 vs New England -300
Game Total: 43.5
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Buffalo vs New England
Why Bet The Buffalo Bills To Beat The Patriots
The Bills improved to 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS after upsetting the Arizona Cardinals 33-18 last week. They average 23.7 points per game (15th) and allow 22.7 points per game (18th).
Buffalo has struggled in the passing game this season and they won’t be getting better anytime soon with stud WR Sammy Watkins on the IR. The Bills average 163.7 passing yards per game (32nd).
QB Tyrod Taylor (527 yards, 3 TDs & 2 INTs) is still trying to regain his breakout 2015 form. Last week, Taylor completed 14 of 25 passes for 119 yards, with an interception. His top two targets WRs Marquise Goodwin (3 rec, 118 yards, 1 TD) and Greg Salas (4 rec, 89 yards, 1 TD) lead an unimpressive receiving corps.
The Bills are rushing the ball better this season with a healthy RB LeSean McCoy (48 car, 227 yards, 3 TDs). They average 119.7 rushing yards per game (9th). Last week, McCoy ran for 110 yards, with two touchdowns vs. Arizona, his best game as a Bill.
The Bills have the 22nd ranked total defense in the NFL. They allow 285.0 passing yards (20th) and 98.0 rushing yards per game (14th). They intercepted QB Carson Palmer four times last week.
Why Bet The New England Patriots To Beat The Bills
The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS after embarrassing the Houston Texans 27-0 last week on Thursday Night Football. New England averages 27.0 points per game (5th) yest gives up a mere 15.0 points per game (5th).
After missing the week 3 meeting against Houston, QB Jimmy Garoppolo (496 yards, 4 TDs & 0 INTs) is scheduled to start against the Bills. Through the air, the Pats average 218.7 passing yards per game (26th) combined with their two backup QBs. Garoppolo sprained his right AC join against the Miami in Week 2.
WR Julian Edelman (18 rec, 180 yards, 0 TD) is still the top pass catcher in this offense. TE Martellus Bennett (10 rec, 138 yards, 1 TD) has taken most of the snaps with TE Rob Gronkowski only 14 snaps this season. He hasn’t caught a pass.
New England averages 150.7 rushing yards per game, best in the NFL. LeGarrette Blount (75 car, 298 yards, 4 TDs) has taken the pressure off of two green backup QBs and trounced opposing defenses.
New England has the 16th total defense in the NFL. They allow 271.0 passing yards per game (17th) and 90.3 rushing yards per game (10th).
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup
- Buffalo is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
Rex Ryan wants to beat Bill Belichick like a red-headed step child, this may be his last change. His teams always perform better during Patriot week. Bet on the Bills with the points.
My final score prediction is Buffalo 24, New England 28.