What a wonderful week of football week we have. For the Thanksgiving calendar week Monday Night Football game we will feast on a battle of AFC East Rivals: the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The NFL week 11 MNF odds favor the Pats by one touchdown to beat the Bills. This is the second meeting between the two. Last time, the Patriots walked away with the W in Week 2, 40-32, but bet on the wily Rex Ryan to make adjustments where Buffalo failed the first time.
“I know we have improved as a football team,” said Ryan, whose club has won three of four on the road. “How much have we improved? We are going to find out on Monday.”
A Closer Look At The Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots NFL Week 11 Odds
What: Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)
When: Monday, November 23, 2015
Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Weather: 58° F | Morning Clouds
Spread: Patriots -7
Moneyline: Buffalo +250 vs New England -300
Game Total: 48
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Buffalo vs New England
If You Are Betting On The Buffalo Bills Odds At +7
The Buffalo Bills are 5-4 straight up and against the spread so far this season. They average 25.4 points (7th), 200.3 passing yards (29th), and 142.3 rushing yards (2nd) per game. Last week on TNF, they beat the NY Jets by a 22-17 score.
“I can tell the truth, this thing is kind of like being dumped by some girl you have the hots for,” Ryan said to reporters after that win. “Every guy in this room has been dumped by a girl. You move on, and every now and then, they call you back.
“And they can’t have you back.”
The last time QB Tyrod Taylor (1436 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs) faced the Pats, he completed 23 of 30 passes for 242 yards with three touchdowns and three picks and also ran for 43 yards and a score. TE Charles Clay (40 rec, 408 yards, 2 TDs) has been the most reliable pass catcher with WR Sammy Watkins (22 rec, 329 yards, 3 TDs) missing time with injuries this season. RB LeSean McCoy (113 att, 528 yards, 2 TDs) ran for 112 yards for the second consecutive game. RB Karlos Williams (58 att, 360 yards, 5 TDs) has scored a passing or rushing TD in six consecutive games.
Buffalo has gone 4-1 when Taylor, Watkins, McCoy, and Williams are active, the lone defeat came to the Pats in week 2.
Buffalo’s defense allows 23.0 points (15th), 252.0 passing yards (18th) and 97.7 rushing yards (9th) per game. Corey Graham has 77 tackles, Mario Williams has three sacks, and Ronald Darby has 18 passes deflected.
If You Are Betting On The New England Patriots Odds At -7
The New England Patriots are 9-0 straight up and 5-2-2 against the spread so far this season. They average 33.4 points (2nd) 325.9 passing yards (2nd) and 92.8 rushing yards (27th) per game. Last week, they beat the NY Giants by a 27-26 score thanks to a last-second 54-yard field goal from Stephen Gostkowski.
“You’re one kick away from being Public Enemy No. 1,” Gostkowski said. “You’re always one kick away from trending on Twitter as the No. 1 loser in America.
“But it’s fun being on a good team. It’s kind of like being on a baseball team where everybody’s got a hit, and you can’t wait to get up there and get a hit, too.”
QB Tom Brady (3043 yards, 24 TDs & 3 INTs) is having a MVP-calibre season, but how will he fare with the loss of reliable WR Julian Edelman (49 att, 234 yards, 2 TDs) due to a left foot fracture? The loss only compounds the earlier news of RB Dion Lewis’ season ending knee injury. I expect TE Rob Gronkowski (49 rec, 806 yards, 8 TDs) and WR Danny Amendola (40 rec, 403 yards, 2 TDs) to get a jump in targets. RB LeGarrette Blount (117 att, 513 yards, 6 TDs) and RB James White (8 att, 20 yards, 0 TD) will man the back-field.
New England’s defense allows 18.8 points (4th), 256.0 passing yards (22nd) and 88.2 rushing yards (2nd) per game. Jamie Collins has 51 tackles, Chandler Jones leads the league with 10.5 sacks, and Malcolm Butler has 11 passes deflected.
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- New England Patriots 3-0-2 At Home this season
- New England Patriots 9-4-2 At Home since last season
- New England Patriots 4-2-2 As Favorite this season
- New England Patriots 11-9-2 As Favorite since last season
- New England Patriots 6-4-2 When Line was 46.5 to 49.5 since last season
- New England Patriots 3-0-2 As Home Favorite this season
- New England Patriots 7-4-2 As Home Favorite since last season
- New England Patriots 9-6 O-U At Home since last season
- New England Patriots 9-3 O-U When Line is 45 to 48 since last season
- New England Patriots 7-4 O-U When Line was 46.5 to 49.5 since last season
- New England Patriots 3-0 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG this season
- New England Patriots 9-2 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG since last season
The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win, 11-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The Patriots are 27-3 SU in their last 30 versus the Bills.
My Pick: Buffalo +7.5
PLAYERS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:
- Buffalo: Percy Harvin, Aaron Williams, MarQueis Gray.
- New England: Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman.