After the New England Patriots opened up as a 3-point favorite to win Super Bowl 51 at every sportsbook on the planet. The Super Bowl 51 line has not moved since opening day, which prompts the question of whether or not you should play the game with the current odds or buy a half-point, whether you like the Patriots or underdog Atlanta Falcons.
Is Buying A Half-Point on Super Bowl 51 A Smart Bet?
What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta
First and foremost, if you don’t know about the NFL’s most common margin of victory numbers, then you should know that the vast majority of games end with a difference of 3,7, 10, 6 or 4 points.
Since 2003, a whopping 15.04 percent of all NFL games (522) have finished with a three-point margin of victory while 9.3 percent (323 games) have finished with a 7-point scoring difference. Another 6.0 percent (210 games) have ended with a 10-point margin of victory and 5.8 percent (202 games) have closed with a 6-point margin of victory.
While almost every sportsbook on the face of the planet now allows football bettors to buy points on the TS betting line, there’s a cost for buying points. On average, it costs football bettors approximately 25 cents for to buy off a 3-point spread, 15 cents to move off a 7-point spread and 10 cents for all other half-points.
Now that you know these age-old betting facts, you need to decide whether you believe your Super Bowl 51 selection will cover the spread without buying points or whether you’re going to need the extra wiggle room.
Betting enthusiasts that like the Patriots and would take them at the current -3 points are risking -105. Buying an additional half-point would make the Pats -2.5 but will cost you -130.
Conversely, gridiron gaming enthusiasts that like Atlanta at +3 will risk -115 while buying an additional half-point would make the Falcons +3.5 but will cost -140.
Another great betting fact that you should know about is that 3-point favorites and 3-point underdogs generally push against the spread nearly 9.0 percent of the time, so buying half-point could be quite beneficial depending on the team you like.
Of course, you should know that the increased ‘vig’ or juice makes a big difference s far as the return you’ll get if you win. For example, a $100 wager at -110 odds would yield a $90.91 profit, but a $100 bet at -135 odds would bring you a $74.07 profit.
If you like the Patriots -3 (-105), then the betting consensus says you probably don’t need to buy the extra half-point to make New England a 2.5-point favorite. Conversely, if you like Atlanta at +3 points, then you may want to buy an additional half-point for the Falcons.