2018 NFL Wild Card Upset Picks

Can The Atlanta Falcons Be Trusted With Your Money?

The Atlanta Falcons will enter the 2014 NFL regular season looking to bounce back from their ‘Murphy’s Law’ campaign of 2013 that saw everything go absolutely wrong for a team that had hopes on competing for a conference crown a year ago.

Now, the once dirty birds are looking to ruffle some feathers and get back to being a legitimate title contender, even if things don’t look quite as rosy as they did prior to the 2013 regular season.

First, we’ll take a look at Atlanta ‘s chances of cashing in on their Super Bowl 49 Futures Odds, before looking at their division prospects and Week 1 regular season opener.

With the start of the annual preseason period set to get underway this coming week, let’s get started.

Betting On The Atlanta Falcons To Win the 2015 Super Bowl

Atlanta Falcons +3300

I love Matt Ryan and clearly, he’s still got the good to get the job done, seeing as how the Falcons finished seventh in passing last season.

Still, the Falcons have far too many question marks and areas they need to improve in for them to be considered even the slightest Super Bowl title contender.

The Falcons finished dead last in rushing last season as they averaged a pitiful 77.9 yards per game on the ground, thereby putting all the pressure on Ryan and the passing attack. Not only that, but Atlanta’s numerous issues on the defensive side of the ball will undoubtedly keep this team from challenging the likes of the NFC’s best teams this coming season.

The Falcons are a whopping +3300 to win Super Bowl 49 – and if you believe they can beat out Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina and possibly new Orleans and Green bay, then go right ahead and place a wager on them to cash in on their NFL Futures Odds. Otherwise avoid their NFL Futures odds at all cost.

Atlanta did add gifted offensive tackle Jake Matthews with the seventh pick in the draft and a pair of defensive players they expect to contribute right away with their second and third round picks.

Analysis: Save Your Money Here!

Betting On The Atlanta Falcons To Win the NFC South

  • Carolina Panthers +100
  • New Orleans Saints +110
  • Atlanta Falcons +275
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650

Analysis: The Falcons finished the 2013 regular season with a pitiful 1-5 SU mark against its NFC South division rivals though they did manage to go 3-3 ATS in division play.

While I expect the Falcons to improve on last season’s discouraging division record and like the addition of veteran running back Steven Jackson, I’m also of the mindset that all three of their division foes will be a bit improved this coming season.

The division-winning Carolina Panthers went 12- 4 a year ago and look like a team intent on proving they are going to contend for the next couple of seasons as Cam Newton continues to mature.

The New Orleans Saints won 11 games with a pitiful rushing attack and run defense that they addressed this offseason and the dysfunctional Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have had the best offseason haul of any NFC South team just by hiring respected no-nonsense head coach Lovie Smith.

Atlanta has won just three of their last 10 games against their division rivals and I believe the oddsmakers have the Falcons slotted perfectly as the third favorite to win the NFC South.

I guess it’s possible the Falcons could surprise and get back to the winning ways they’ve always had under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, but right now, I’ve got the former Dirty Birds, finishing third.

My Pick: Atlanta to Finish Third in NFC South

Betting On The Atlanta Falcons To Win In Week One

  • New Orleans at Atlanta -1.5
  • Over/Under 52

Analysis: While I just picked Atlanta to finish third in the NFC South, I do like them to get the season-opening win – and a division one at that.

After losing both games to the New Orleans Saints last season, I like the Falcons to extract a bit of revenge in this Week 1 matchup, mostly because they’re playing at home and will have an extra boost of adrenaline to both, start their 2014 campaign off on the right foot – and get the payback they’re looking for against their longtime division rivals.

The Falcons have lost four of their last five home games against New Orleans, but each of those losses came by three points except last season’s four-point home loss.

Prior to last season, Atlanta had gone 10-2 SU in their previous dozen home games, though they were just 6-6 ATS during the stretch. I like Atlanta to get the narrow home win to cash in as a slight home fave against Drew Brees and company.

The Falcons are expecting their vaunted passing attack to be even better this season now that fleet-footed wide receiver Julio Jones is back on the field after missing 11 games last season due to foot surgery.

Veteran cornerback Marcus Trufant sounded impressed when talking about Jones recently.

"He’s looking good, man," Trufant said of Jones. "To come back like he did … he didn’t do any of the (organized team activities). He was just doing rehab. He didn’t miss a beat. That’s exactly what we want to see. And he’s going to definitely have a comeback season this year."

Random Atlanta Falcons Betting Tips

Look for Atlanta to get involved in shootouts against the Saints, Vikings, Bears, Lions, and Packers and low-scoring affairs against the Buccaneers, Ravens, Cardinals and Panthers.

The Falcons are 6-4 SU but just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. However, Atlanta is apparently a great team to wager on at home in the month of September as they’ve gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their L/10 home games during the opening month of the regular season.

Atlanta has lost nine of their last 10 games as an underdog while going 5-5 ATS over the span. The good news is that the Falcons have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a pup.

After never failing to win less than nine games under head coach Mike Smith, since he took over back in 2008, the Falcons appear to have an uphill battle on their hands after completely falling apart last season. However, things may not be quite as bad as they appear and I believe the Atlanta Falcons should nab at least eight wins this coming season, even if their division is a bit tougher.

Atlanta Falcons Projected 2014 Starters




Matt Ryan


Tyson Jackson


Steven Jackson


Paul Soliai


Julio Jones


Jonathan Babineaux  /  Ra’Shede Hageman


Roddy White


Osi Umenyiora


Harry Douglas


Paul Worrilow


Levine Toilolo


Joplo Bartu


Sam Baker


Desmond Trufant


Justin Blalock


Robert Alford


Joe Hawley


Robert McClain  /  Josh Wilson


Jon Asamoah


William Moore


Jake Matthews


Dwight Lowery  /  Dezmen Southward


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