Indianapolis Colts

Can Tennessee Titans Put Another Dent In The Armor of the Colts?

Here’s a little secret about the Indianapolis Colts that people don’t want to admit – they’re not supposed to be a playoff team. When the Colts had to move on from Peyton Manning, they were in a rebuilding phase. They secured Andrew Luck and just prayed that he was as good as everyone said he’d be. The only real members of the old guard are Robert Matthis and Reggie Wayne. This is a brand new team that is young and trying to find its way.

Then Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians proved that they were two of the best head coaches in the NFL today during a miraculous run by Indy, which finished 11-5 SU and won an inordinate amount of close games. The same thing happened in Washington. The difference? The Colts are still winning games this season but their spread record has taken a beating. Indy has gone 3-3 SU and ATS in their last 6 games, which seems fine except that those games have included three tight (and somewhat lucky) wins and three complete blowouts. This is not a reliable team. People just assume they are because of their overall winning record during the Andrew Luck era.

Tennessee Titans (5-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
The Colts aee 4 point favorites over their division rivals Titans in the NFL week 13.
Starts: 12/01/2013 1:00PM
Lucas Oil Stadium, 500 S. Capitol Ave.
Indianapolis, Indiana


A great quarterback and coach combination can make a massive difference on an NFL team. This goes without saying. The Colts are benefitting form that, but they’re also luring their betting backers in to some seriously difficult traps. Do you realize that their point differential over the course of the season is a big fat zero? That’s a huge problem when gauging how they’ll perform against the betting line, especially when your remember that this team has locked either downright shaky or outright terrible over the past two months.

Losing Wayne was a huge blow because the other receivers on this team – namely T.Y. Hilton – are so young. There’s no polish in the route running, and the whole Trent Richardson trade ended up being a disaster. Indianapolis has a good offensive line, though not a great one, but Trent hasn’t been able to exploit anything. If not for Andrew Luck, this team would be staring at a two or three win season. That’s how much of a difference he makes.  


Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

Tennessee, however, poses a problematic play because their offensive line is a mess. Chris Johnson is getting yards, but not producing the explosive plays he is mostly known for. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent backup quarterback, but he’s still a backup, and their 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS record over their past 7 games is nothing to be encouraged about especially when it features recent losses to both Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

Everything about the Colts’ betting trends is positive, but I love that Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Though they’re 3-11-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning record, I think they’ve found the mojo that made them an exciting upstart play earlier this season. They’ve put that disheartening loss against Jacksonville behind them and came oh-so-close to beating Indy two games ago anyhow.

The Colts are a playoff team by virtue of their record, but they’re absolutely not a contender. I’m not saying that they’re bad, but the hope for them lies in future seasons. Tennessee has the type of disruptive defense that can still force teams in to bad positions even without Michael Huff at safety. Indy is also getting buried on the scoreboard or fighting back to win games at the last minute. I can’t trust a team like that. Even against Tennessee.

NFL Betting Free Pick – Tennessee +4.0

Posted in NFL