Christmas Week NFL 5 Star Lock Picks

Christmas Week NFL 5 Star Lock Picks

My lock picks for Christmas Week in the NFL all come from three games that won’t mean much come playoff time. Not a single lock picks team this week is expected to make the playoffs. Chicago battles Tampa Bay on the road. San Francisco takes on Detroit in Motown. Jacksonville travels to the Big Easy to battle New Orleans. The key is to find either mismatches or motivated home teams when dealing with non-playoff squads this late in the season. See below for the Week 16 lock picks.

A Closer Look At My ? Week NFL 5-? ? Picks

What: Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
When: Sunday, December 27, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Tampa, FL
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Moneyline: Chicago +140 vs Tampa Bay -160
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: FOX
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Chicago vs Tampa Bay

Analysis: For a while there the Bears were hot. It looked like they might sneak into the playoffs. Then, disaster struck. Chicago has gone 1 and 4 straight up in their last 5 games. They’ve lost 3 games in a row and have gone 0 and 3 against the spread in those 3 games. The losses have been to San Francisco, Washington and Minnesota.

Tampa Bay has gone 1 and 3 straight up and 1 and 3 against the spread in their last 4 games. The reason why the Bucs are a good pick ATS in this game is because Tampa averages 141.3 rushing yards per game while Chicago’s defense allows 125.9 rushing yards per game on average. The Buccaneers should run their way to a cover win in this matchup.

Pick: Tampa Bay

What: San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
When: Sunday, December 27, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Detroit, MI
Ford Field
Spread: Lions -9
Game Total: 43
Watch: FOX
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: San Francisco vs Detroit

Analysis: San Francisco is a mess. The team ran Coach Jim Harbaugh out of SF before the season started. QB Blaine Gabbert is getting worse week to week. He produced a 58 QB rating against Cincinnati’s defense in a 14 to 24 SF loss in Week 15. San Francisco averages a terrible 93.9 rushing yards per game while the defense allows an average of 390.3 total yards per game.

Detroit has gone 4 and 2 both straight up and ATS in the Lions last 6 games. Detroit’s D should have no problem getting to Gabbert while Detroit’s offense clicked impressively versus the Saints this past Monday night with 150 rushing yards and 246 passing yards.

Pick: Detroit 

What: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)
When: Sunday, December 27, 2015
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET 
Where: New Orleans, LA
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Spread: Jaguars -3
Game Total: 51.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Jacksonville vs New Orleans

Analysis: New Orleans lost 27 to 35 to Detroit in Week 15, but that doesn’t mean that the Saints are going to have trouble against Jacksonville in Week 16. The Saints have some decent players on their defense, but those guys are young and inexperienced. More importantly in this game, QB Drew Brees and the Saints offense should have no trouble moving the football against a Jags defense allowing 260 passing yards per game. Brees averages 303.2 passing yards per matchup. Even if Brees doesn’t play, back-up Luke McCown is one of the better back-ups in the NFL. The Saints average 25 points per game. The Saints defense won’t quit even though they’ve been getting spanked all season long. Expect New Orleans to bounce back with a nice win and cover against Jacksonville on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Posted in NFL