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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Betting Cheat Sheet

The NFL Wild Card Round is in the books. For the first time in NFL history not a single home team won in any of their Wild Card Games. Although that’s an anomaly, it also might be the first time in NFL Wild Card History that not a single home team went off as the favorite in any of the games.

The closest favorite was Washington who was in a pick game with Green Bay. Green Bay beat Washington and now takes on Arizona in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round. Other Divisional Playoff games include Seattle battling Carolina, Pittsburgh going against Denver and Kansas City taking on New England. Keep reading for my best ATS, Over/Under and Moneyline picks for the NFL Divisional Round!

NFL Divisional Round Playoff ATS Free Picks

What: Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
When: Saturday, January 16, 2016
Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET 
Where: Glendale, AZ
Stadium: U of Phoenix Stadium
Spread: Cardinals -8
Moneyline: Green Bay +255 vs Arizona -310
Game Total: 50
Watch: NBC
Stream:  NBC Sports Live Extra
Listen: Green Bay vs Arizona

Analysis: Green Bay surprised me. I thought Washington was a lock in the Wild Card Round. Aaron Rodgers had been playing so badly that I figured Washington would find a way to outscore the Packers. Instead of Green Bay losing the game, the Packers convinced me that they have what it takes to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Rodgers was brilliant after the first quarter. He ended up throwing for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s an advantage for the Packers in the Divisional Round.  

Another advantage for Green Bay in this game is that the vaunted Arizona defense gave up 145 rushing yards to Seattle in Week 17. If Green Bay gets their running game going, and they did against Washington in the Wild Card Round, they’ll have a shot at winning this straight up.

Pick: Green Bay  

What: Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)
When: Sunday, January 17, 2016
Kickoff: 1:05 PM ET 
Where: Charlotte, NC
Stadium: Bank of America Stadium
Spread: Panthers -2.5
Moneyline: Seattle +130 vs Carolina -150
Game Total: 44
Watch: FOX
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Seattle vs Carolina

Analysis: Let’s call Seattle’s 10 to 9 victory over Minnesota in the Wild Card Round what it is, a win via luck. The Seahawks got about as lucky as a team could get after Adrian Peterson fumbled, the Seahawks took the lead on a field goal, and Minnesota field goal kicker Blair Walsh shanked his 27 yarder for the win. Seattle doesn’t figure to get lucky 2 games in a row.

Seattle’s defense couldn’t stop Panther QB Cam Newton from throwing the ball in Carolina’s 27 to 23 win over Seattle earlier this season. Cam threw for 269 yards and a TD. The Panthers rushed for an unheard of against the Seattle defense 135 yards. Cam and Carolina should have no trouble repeating those number at home in this game.

Pick: Carolina

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Over/Under Game Total Expert Picks

What: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
When: Sunday, January 17, 2016
Kickoff: 4:40 PM ET 
Where: Denver, CO
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Spread: Broncos -7
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +230 vs Denver -270
Game Total: 40.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Pittsburgh vs Denver

Analysis: If this game took place two week ago, the total would probably be between 50 and 55. Pittsburgh’s offense was en fuego while Denver’s Brock Osweiler was slinging it all over the field. But, this Sunday Pittsburgh could be without both WR Antonio Brown and QB Ben Roethlisberger and Denver figures to be more conservative on offense now that Peyton Manning is playing under center.

With that being written, Pittsburgh’s defense has given up 20 points or more in 3 out of their last 5 games. The only two teams that they kept from 20 points is Cleveland with Austin Davis at QB in Week 17 and Cincinnati with A.J. McCarron at QB in the Wild Card win. Peyton could have a great game this Sunday. He should be well-rested after sitting out so many games due to the injury.   

Denver’s defense gave up 34 points to Pittsburgh on Dec. 20. Even if Big Ben and Brown are out, the Pitt defense is good enough to get 20 in this game. I’m going over.

Pick: Over

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Straight Up Moneyline Picks

What: Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
When: Saturday, January 16, 2016
Kickoff: 4:35 PM ET 
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Spread: Patriots -5
Moneyline: Kansas City +195 vs New England -235
Game Total: 43
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Kansas City vs New England

Analysis: That’s some crazy spread. Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL. The Chiefs have won 11 straight games. The defense has given up more than 20 points only once in Kansas City’s last 13 games. The offense is on fire with Alex Smith throwing mainly to tight-end Travis Kelce.

Sure, WR Jeremy Maclin has a high ankle sprain. But Maclin might suit up. Even if he doesn’t, Coach Andy Reid is calling plays so well this season that it’s doubtful any defense, including New England’s, will stop the Chiefs from moving the football. New England allows 240.8 passing yards per game on average because they almost always have to bring up a safety to help stop the rush. That won’t work against Kansas City.  The Chiefs win this outright.

Pick: Kansas City

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