Jay Ajayi and the upstart Miami Dolphins will look to duplicate their stunning Week 6 win over Ben Roethlisberger and the favored Pittsburgh Steelers in order to pull off the upset in their AFC wild card matchup on Sunday.
Now, let’s find out if the Dolphins can overcome the long odds they’re facing as a double-digit road dog when this game goes down live from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh at 1:00 PM ET with this matchup airing live on CBS.
Miami Dolphins Vs Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card Line & Betting Prediction
What: Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 8, 2016
Start Time: 1:05 PM ET
Where: Pittsburgh, PA
Stadium: Heinz Field
Spread: Steelers -10
Moneyline: Miami +360 vs Pittsburgh -480
Game Total: 47
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Miami vs Pittsburgh
Why Bet The Miami Dolphins To Beat The Steelers
Despite getting spanked in their regular season finale against New England, the Dolphins (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) come into the postseason having won three of their final four games and eight of their last 11 games overall.
Miami finished the regular season ranked a respectable 15th against the pass (242.2 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (23.8 ppg) and have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, starting with outstanding defensive linemen Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh.
Not only that, but the Dolphins found out they have a superstar talent in running back Jay Ajayi (1,272 yards) that helped them finish the regular season ranked rank ninth in rushing (114.0 ypg). Miami also has a pair of gifted wide receivers in Jarvis Landry (1,136 yards) and Kenny Stills (9 TDs).
In three starts and two relief appearances this season, veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore has helped Miami go 4-1 while completing a solid 63.2 percent with eight TD passes and three interceptions while compiling a stellar quarterback rating of 105.6. For me, Moore is simply more of leader than Tannehill and a far better deep-ball passer.
Miami has also compiled a bunch of positive ATS trends that make them look attractive this postseason. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against their AFC conference counterparts and a consistent 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Why Bet The Pittsburgh To Beat The Dolphins
Ben Roethlisberger and the offensively-explosive Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won their final seven games of the season to hit the postseason as the hottest team in either conference. Led by their future Hall of Fame quarterback, the Steelers finished the regular season ranked seventh in total offense (372.6 ypg), sixth in passing (262.6 ypg), 14th in rushing (110.0 ypg) and 11th in scoring (24.9 ppg).
If you didn’t know before, the Steelers have arguably the best trio in the league in Roethlisberger (3,819 yards), running back Le’Veon Bell (1,268 yards) and wide receiver Antonio Brown (1,284 yards) and that alone makes them dangerous and worthy of a postseason wager.
The Steelers were also solid, if not outstanding on defense and finished the regular season ranked 12th overall (342.6 ypg) and 10th in points allowed (20.4 ppg).
Dolphins Vs Steelers ATS Pick & Final Score Prediction
While Pittsburgh has won seven straight games to close out the regular season, the Steelers are just 1-0-3 ATS in their last four games in the month of January, 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games and a winless 0-3-2 ATS in their last five playoff games overall.
The Dolphins stunned the Steelers at Heinz Field 30-16 in Week 6 to cash in as a 7.5-point underdog and have won two straight over the Steelers dating back to 2013. More importantly, I think Miami will have some success against a Steelers defense that finished in the middle of the pack against the run (13th)and pass (16th).
Miami has won and covered the NFL betting line in each of their last two road games while going 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five road dates. The Dolphins are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against their AFC conference counterparts.
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games and 0-3-2 ATS in their last five playoff games. The Steelers win, but the ATS cover goes to Miami
While I like the Steelers to get the SU win at home, the Miami Dolphins are my pick to get the ATS cover in a matchup that I believe the spread is just a few points too high.