Three of the very best matchups on the Week 5 docket are highlighted in this trifecta of expert NFL picks. You see, five of the six teams featured in this betting breakdown all currently have winning records and the lone team that doesn’t (Green Bay) has arguably the best quarterback in the game today.
Thanks to this informative betting analysis on each matchup, NFL pro football bettors everywhere will have an excellent opportunity to boost the annual betting bankroll.
Kansas City -1.5 at Tennessee
The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) and Tennessee Titans (3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) have both been two of the biggest surprises in the league in the early going this season, but only one team can win this contest and I know exactly which one.
The Chiefs remained unbeaten by pounding the snot out of the New York Giants in their emphatic 31-7 Week 4 home win while cashing in as a 3.5-point favorite.
Tennessee looked even better in spanking the mediocre Jets 38-13 the last time out while easily covering the spread as a 3.5-point home favorite to up their ATS mark
For this contest, I’m going to urge NFL gamblers to use the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple Stupid) method. The Titans won’t have starting quarterback Jake Locker for 4-6 weeks after seeing their blossoming signal-caller injured in Tennessee’s rout.
The Titans have gone just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record while Kansas City has gone 5-2 ATS in their L/7 games in the month of October.
Tennessee will turn to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I fully expect the Kansas City Chiefs to take advantage of Locker’s absence while getting another (ho-hum) fantastic, but underrated performance from Alex Smith. Back the Chiefs to win and cash in with room to spare!
The Pick: Kansas City -1.5 Points
Seattle -1 at Indianapolis
The Seattle Seahawks (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) escaped Houston with a victory thanks to Matt Schaub’s boneheaded pass late in regulation, but I’m going out on a limb to say they won’t be so lucky this time around against Andrew Luck and the blossoming Indianapolis Colts (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS).
Seattle found a way to win and cover the spread the last time out, beating Houston 23-20 as Richard Sherman picked off Schaub late to force overtime, where they promptly stopped the Texans on one drive before setting themselves up for a game-winning field goal.
Indianapolis is coming off a resounding 37-3 blowout win over Jacksonville in Week 4 that comes just one week after they routed San Francisco 27-7. Making things worse is the fact that Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck now says he feels even more comfortable than he did during his rookie campaign a year ago.
"I feel 100% more comfortable this year" – Luck http://t.co/dEWkz0cvWK
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) May 8, 2013
I like the Colts to pull off the upset home win here as Luck makes the Seahawks pay for the few mistakes they’ll make. I also think the addition of Trent Richardson will pay big dividends in a game like this against a physical Seattle defense.
Indianapolis has won seven of their last eight home games while compiling a blistering 9-3 ATS mark in their last dozen home games and 11-5 ATS mark in their L16 games overall.
Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its L/17 games against a team with a winning record, but history says they struggle when they play Indianapolis, having gone 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against the Colts.
The Pick: Indianapolis +1 Point
Detroit at Green Bay -7
The Detroit Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) and Green Bay Packers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) will square off in an important early-season NFC North divisional matchup that could have long range playoff implications, even at this early juncture of the season.
Detroit is coming off an impressive 40-32 over Chicago as a 3-point home favorite in Week 4 while the Packers will enter this contest extremely well-rested after getting bye in Week 4.
Green Bay didn’t look very good in its 34-30 road loss to Cincinnati in Week 3 and have allowed an identical 34 points in each of their two losses this season. Ironically, that figure is the same number that the Lions have topped in two of their three wins this season.
Nevertheless, I’m going to take the Packers for the straight-up home win in this matchup, though I’m picking the Lions to cover the spread in a close contest.
Detroit is absolutely explosive on both sides of the ball and will undoubtedly give the Packers all they can handle and then some in this important NFC north divisional matchup.
The Pick: Green Bay Wins/Detroit +7 Points