Get The Edge On Your NFL Bets – Taking the UnderdogJosh Bailey
When it comes to cashing in on NFL football betting, there’s more than one way to skin the proverbial cat!
You see, if you bet on the NFL and are looking to make consistent returns on your pro football betting investments, then you should know that there’s much more to making successful NFL wagers than by simply betting on what looks like the best favorites on the board each week.
While experienced gamblers may already know a thing or two about betting on underdogs, casual gamblers and those that are relatively new to the betting genre, may not know nearly as much about backing dogs. Of course, online sportsbooks are in business to make money, so it’s not like they’re going to chase you down and give you every inside betting secret there is.
That’s where I come in with this expert analysis on everything that NFL gamblers need to know about making money by betting on underdogs.
So, with all of that said and another exciting week of NFL football quickly approaching, let’s get stared.
I believe that one of the very biggest – and least known – facts about betting on NFL football is the fact that nearly 84 % of the time, the team that wins the contest outright is the team that covers the spread, meaning that just 16% of the time, does the point spread really come into play.
Basically, this means that NFL gamblers should look, first and foremost at the team they believe are going to win their respective contests outright. Taking this route, even if you’re backing an underdog or playing the SU Moneyline, is one of the most profitable ways to consistently cash in on NFL football.
Pro football bettors should look at the best underdogs picks on the board – and even more importantly – home underdogs. Heading into Monday night’s Week 7 matchup between the Giants and Vikings, home underdogs had covered the spread in 53.85% of their games, posting a respectable 21-18 mark in such contests.
NFL gamblers can see the importance of picking winning underdogs if they simply take a look at this season’s ATS league leaders heading into Week 8.
Let’s take a look at the seven teams with two ATS losses or less so far.
Dallas 6-1 ATS – Dallas has managed to rack up the best ATS record in the league so far and have recorded three of their six ATS wins this season as an underdog.
San Diego 5-1 ATS – Three of the Chargers’ six ATS wins this season have taken place with the Bolts as an underdog.
K.C. 5-2 ATS – The Chiefs have been favored in every game except one – and they covered the spread in that one as a 3-point road dog against Philly in Week 3.
Seattle 5-2 ATS – The Seahawks haven’t been an underdog this season.
San Francisco 5-2 ATS – The Niners lost their only game this season as an underdog – to the aforementioned Seahawks.
NY Jets 5-2 ATS – Four of New York’s five ATS wins this season have come as an underdog, including their stunning 30-27 Week 7win over New England.
Buffalo 5-2 ATS – All five of the Bills’ ATS victories this season have come as an underdog, with four of those featuring the Bills as the home team.
Did You Know that only one team (1976 Steelers) has managed to cover the spread as favorite among the 10 largest point spreads in league history?
And speaking of league history, NFL gamblers should know that when it comes to winning the annual Super Bowl title tilt, Underdogs have more than held their own.
With Baltimore’s ‘upset’ win over San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog last season, Underdogs have now won two straight Super Bowl titles and a blistering five of the last six Super Bowls overall. Going one step further to prove their betting worth, Underdogs have actually won or covered the spread in a whopping nine of the last dozen super bowls overall.
In 2012, the Giants beat the Patriots 21-17 as a 2.5-point underdog while the Saints, Cardinals and Giants (again) all cashed in as Super Bowl dogs from 2008-2010.
Illustrating my point exactly about picking the outright winner whether they’re an underdog or not, is the fact that only six times has the favorite won the Super Bowl straight up while failing to cover the spread (2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976).
Now, while I’ve encouraged you to think about betting a few select underdogs each week, the fact of the matter is that NFL gridiron gamblers need to know that all underdogs are not created equal.
As a matter of fact, if you’re betting on a road underdog, then you had better know for sure they’re going to win outright because road dogs generally struggle mightily to cover the spread.
This season alone, road underdogs have cashed in for their betting backers just 43.75% of the time (28-36-3), so avoiding road dogs that aren’t virtually desperate is wise advice.
The best advice I can give to pro football bettors that are considering taking underdogs each week, is to do your homework in the forms of checking out the most pertinent statistical and betting history that you can as well as the current ‘desperation level’ and recent play of the teams you’re potentially going to bet on.
Don’t blame your bookie if you’re not as up to speed on betting on underdogs as you’d like to be. Simply take action with the aforementioned steps and you’ll be well on your way to making your bookie pay!