Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Line, Betting Trends & PreviewNoah Williams
The Green Bay Packers are 3-0 and they are quietly exacting revenge to those that have wronged them. Two weeks they beat the Seahawks 27-17 after prime-time losses in the 2012 Fail Mary Game and deep cutting 2014 NFC Championship Tilt. Then last week the Packers felled the Chiefs who spoiled their 2011 perfect season that began 13-0 and finished 15-1.
This week the Packers face the 9-point underdog San Francisco 49ers. The same 49ers that have defeated the Packers four straight times including two walk-off playoff wins by the Niners in 2012 and 2013.
Can Green Bay continue its streak of vengeance? Or do the 49ers have the Packers’ number? Which side should you bet? Keep reading for answers to those questions and more.
A Closer Look At The Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 4 Betting Preview
What: Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
When: Sunday, October, 4, 2015
Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Weather: 70° F/sprinkles
Spread: Packers -9
Moneyline: Green Bay -380 vs San Fran +300
Game Total: 48.5
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Green Bay vs San Francisco
If You Are Betting On The Green Bay Packers (-9)
Green Bay is 3-0 both straight and against the spread this season. Last week they picked apart the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 38-28 on Monday Night Football. The Packers offense is averaging 32.0 points (4th), 249.3 passing yards (16th), and 127.7 rushing yards (9th) per game this season. Those numbers are highly deceptive as QB Aaron Rodgers is in MVP form — again.
— ESPN (@espn) September 30, 2015
Rodgers has thrown for 771 yards, 10 TDs & 0 INTs while completing 73.6% of his passes through three weeks this season. But this week he faces a team that he has a 2-4 record against, including an 0-2 playoff record. Will Rodgers break the bad the streak of ju-ju vs the 49ers?
He is going to have to do it without another one of his top targets. Jordy Nelson was lost for the year before the season started and last week he lost Davante Adams. But he still has possibly the best WR duo in the league. Leading the way is Randall Cobb (20 rec, 245 yards, 4 TDs) followed by famous cast-off James Jones (12 rec, 219 yards, 4 TDs).
Their running game is led by RB Eddie Lacy (32 att, 140 yards, 1 TD) who has been slowed by a nagging ankle problem. Backup James Starks (39 att, 129 yards, 0 TD) has picked up the extra carries and can pickup yards.
Green Bay’s defense is giving up 22.7 points (13th), 223.0 passing yards (11th) and 127.7 rushing yards (27th) per game. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix leads the Packers with 22 tackles, Julius Peppers has 2.5 sacks and Damarious Randall has four pass deflections.
If You Are Betting On The San Francisco 49ers (+9)
San Francisco is 1-2 both straight up and against the spread and have struggled mightily. Last week they limped away from a 47-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals . The 49ers offense averages 15.0 points (32nd), 172.0 passing yards (30th) and 148.0 rushing yards (2nd) per game this season.
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 30, 2015
QB Colin Kaepernick (567 yards, 2 TDs & 4 INTs) is coming off his performance of his career. He completed only 9 of 19 passes for 67 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs, including two pix sixes in the first two passes of game against the Cardinals. The good news he Kaepernick has had his biggest moments and a few of his best games against the Packers.
The biggest challenge for Kaepernick is that his top two targets are over the hill WRs Torrey Smith (7 rec, 131 yards, 1 TD) and Anquan Boldin (12 rec, 112 yards, 1 TD).
The rush attack has been handed off to sophomore RB Carlos Hyde (54 att, 262 yards, 2 TDs) after Frank Gore signed with the Colts during the offseason. He is the most dangerous player on the 49ers and after his breakout game during Week 1 vs the Vikings opposing defenses have focused on the young runner allowing a mere 43 and 51 yards in his last two games. Granted those games were against the Steelers and Cardianls, respectively.
San Francisco’s defense allows 31.0 points (31st), 284.0 passing yards (27th), and 98.0 rushing yards (16th) per game. NaVorro Bowman leads the 49ers with 20 tackles, Tramaine Brock has two pass deflections and Aaron Lynch has two tackles for loss.
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- San Francisco 49ers 2-7 At Home since last season
- Green Bay Packers 3-0 As Favorite this season
- Green Bay Packers 11-5-1 As Favorite since last season
- San Francisco 49ers 1-2 As Underdog or PK this season
- San Francisco 49ers 2-4 As Underdog or PK since last season
- Green Bay Packers 4-2 When Line was 47 to 50 since last season
- San Francisco 49ers 0-3 When Line was 47 to 50 since last season
- San Francisco 49ers 1-7-1 O-U At Home since last season
- San Francisco 49ers 2-3 O-U When Line is >48 since last season
- San Francisco 49ers 3-6 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG since last season
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win, 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
The 49ers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4, 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in October, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC, 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
My NFL Week 4 Betting Pick: Packers -9
Players Out or Doubtful:
- Green Bay: Letroy Guion.
- San Francisco: N/A.