One would think that because the Super Bowl from year to year is so different that there wouldn’t be any betting trends. How can betting trends develop for a single game that changes its participants and its venue year to year?
Thinking that way is wrong. The Super Bowl, especially recently, has followed some strong trends when it comes to the betting line. When it comes to the total, the trends don’t appear as strong. First, let’s take a look at the Super Bowl betting trends that have to do with the spread. Then, let’s take a look at the Super Bowl betting trends that have to do with the total.
Super Bowl Spread Betting Trends
Since 2000, the underdog has beaten the spread 10 times. The favorite has won against the spread only 4 times since the 2000 Super Bowl. The lone pick’em game occurred last year when New England beat Seattle 28 to 24. The lone push Super Bowl occurred in 2000 when St. Louis and the Greatest Show on Turf beat the tough Tennessee Titans by exactly 7 points, 31 to 24.
What’s interesting about the pattern is that even though the underdog has a decided trend betting edge over the favorite in Super Bowls from 2000 on, there is a legitimate pattern for the last 6 underdog against the spread wins. It’s almost like a freaking baccarat game how well the pattern unfolded in the last 6 ATS underdog wins. The Giants, Steelers and Saints covered ATS as underdogs in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Green Bay covered as the favorite in the 2011 Super Bowl. Then, up until the 2015 Super Bowl, underdogs had won another 3 Super Bowls in a row: the Giants in 2012, Baltimore in 2013 and Seattle in 2014.
The key for the analysis is to determine whether or not New England’s pick’em win last season counts as a win for the favorite or as a win for the underdog. If New England’s pick’em win is for the favorite, and you believe in the pattern, you should back Denver ATS in Super Bowl 50. If it’s a win for the underdog, you should back Carolina. If you’re throwing out last year’s Super Bowl all together, you should back Carolina because the trend says that after 3 underdog wins, the favorite in the Super Bowl should win ATS.
Super Bowl Game Total Over/Under Betting Trends
You won’t find any patterns when it comes to Super Bowl Total Betting Trends. Since 2000, the total has gone: under, over, under, over, over, under, under, under, under, over, under, over, under, and then over, over, over. If there is any pattern, it could be that this year’s Super Bowl will go under because 3 straight over wins seems like a lot. Then again, 4 straight over wins in the Super Bowl isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Use your best judgment and personal preference when it comes to betting this year’s Super Bowl total. My personal preference is to always side with the defense in the Super Bowl. That cost me last season since the team with the better offense, New England, beat the team with the better defense, Seattle. This season, the team with the better defense is Denver while the team with the better offense is Carolina. Am I switching it up? Nope. I’m still going under.