The Houston Texans will look to both, extract some revenge and pull off the huge upset when they hit the road to face Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in their AFC divisional round matchup on Saturday.
The Patriots are now -16 over the Texans. Has to be the biggest line in NFL divisional round history.
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 8, 2017
The Texans will take to the gridiron in this contest looking to overcome the biggest opening spread in a playoff contest since 1998. Now, let’s find out if Houston has what it takes to stun Brady and company when this game gets underway at 8:15 PM ET, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts while airing live on CBS.
Houston Texans Vs New England Patriots Spread & ATS Pick
What: Houston Texans (9-7) at New England Patriots (14-2)
When: Saturday, January 14, 2017
Start Time: 8:15 PM ET
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Spread: New England -16
Moneyline: Houston +1000 at New England -2000
Game Total: 45
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Houston vs New England
Why Bet The Houston Texans to Beat the Patriots
The Houston Texans (10-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) rolled all over the banged-up Oakland Raiders in their 27-14 wild card win on Saturday as quarterback Brock Osweiler completed 14-of-25 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown while adding a one-yard touchdown run in the win.
"I thought [Osweiler] had a good game," head coach Bill O’Brien said. "He took care of the ball, he executed the game plan. Basically, he spread the ball around; I’m not sure how many receivers caught passes but it looked good to me. I thought the offensive line had a nice game for the most part.”Unfortunately for the Texans, O’Brien has said that Osweiler will remain the starter for Saturday’s matchup with veteran Tom Savage still in the concussion protocol. Houston has won four of their last five games, but averages just 17.4 points per game to rank 29th in scoring. Defensively, Houston ranked first in total defense, second against the pass but just 11th in points allowed (20.5 ppg).
Why Bet The New England Patriots to Beat the Texans
The New England Patriots (14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS) won their final seven games of the regular season and shut the Texans out in Week 3 to win 27-0 without Tom Brady on the field.
This time around Brady will get the start while Houston will be without its best player in defensive end J.J. Watt. New England finished the regular season ranked fourth overall (386.2 ypg), fourth in passing (269.2 ypg), seventh in rushing (117.0 ypg), third in scoring (27.6 ppg) and a stellar first in points allowed defensively (15.6 ppg).
Expert ATS Pick & Final Score Prediction
I’m going to get right to the point by saying that Houston would have had a much better chance to cover the spread if Tom Savage were getting the start in this divisional round matchup instead of the pitiful Brock Osweiler. However, since Savage will be on the bench, I say play the Pats to win big and cover the largest playoff spread in almost two decades and 54 percent of the betting public agrees.
The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against their AFC counterparts, an uninspiring 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and a winless 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record.
Conversely, Tom Brady and the Patriots have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an SU win, 4-0 ATS in their L/4 games against their AFC conference counterparts and a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their L/7 games against a team with a winning record.
The Texans have a very good defense, but they won’t be able to move the ball much, if at all with Brock Osweiler under center, making the Patriots the pick to record their second blowout win over Houston this season.