How To Bet The NY Jets at Buffalo Bills Spread & Expert ATS Pick

How To Bet The NY Jets at Buffalo Bills Spread & Expert ATS Pick

All that stands between the red-hot New York Jets and the 2015-16 NFL playoffs is Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills.

Well, how’s that for a hair raising finish to their 2015-16 campaigns?

The New York Jets have turned what everyone thought would be a rebuilding season under new head-coach Todd Bowles into a Week 17 win-and-in scenario against the Bills and their former head-coach, who was fired after failing to lead New York to the postseason in each of the last four of his six seasons.

Ryan is already 1-0 against his former team after a 22-17 victory over the Jets in a Thursday night game in Week 10. 

Keep reading to find out more about the 111th meeting between the Jets battle the Bills on Sunday in Buffalo.

A Closer Look At How To Bet The NY Jets at Buffalo Bills NFL Week 17 Spread

The NFL week 17 betting spread favors the New York Jets by a field-goal to beat their former coach and his new team. If you are betting the moneyline straight up, the Jets pay 100 on 150 while the Bills pay 130 on 100. The over/under is at 43 points. It may sound high for two teams that are usually known for their defense, but the NFL week 17 oddsmakers are on point with their total.

What: NY Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8)
When: Sunday, January 3, 2016
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Buffalo, NY
Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium
Spread: Jets -3
Moneyline: New York -150 vs Buffalo +130
Game Total: 43
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: New York vs Buffalo

Why Bet The NY Jets at -7 Over The Texans Bills

The NY Jets are 10-5 straight up and 8-5-2 against the spread this season. They average 24.7 points (10th), 258.6 passing yards (11th) and 116.4 rushing yards (11th) per game. Last week, they beat New England by a 26-20 in OT after the Pats coach Bill Belichick decided to kick-off instead of receive.

Over the last five games the Jets are undefeated. Why?

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s (3724 yards, 29 TDs & 12 INTs) steady play during the winning streak has been MVP-like. He has thrown for 1,525 yards and 13 touchdowns with one interception. In three of the last four games, Fitzpatrick has driven the Jets to a win in the final 2 minutes of regulation or overtime.

Why has Fitz been so successful?

The play of wideouts Brandon Marshall (101 rec, 1376 yards, 13 TDs), who set the franchise’s season record with 101 catches to date and Eric Decker (75 rec, 977 yards, 11 TDs) has made it easy for Fitz.

“There was still a ton of belief and I just think you know being in the league and having experience that a lot of us do have, you can recognize when you have a good team,” Fitzpatrick said. “So, I think the belief’s always been there just because we see the way that everybody works week in and week out and we see the talent level on this team.

“I think that the belief has been there from Day 1 and it hasn’t wavered.”

RB Chris Ivory (241 att, 989 yards, 7 TDs) has struggled the past few weeks after starting the season red-hot. He has averaged a paltry 37.5 rushing yards per game over the last two. His backup, Bilal Powell (70 att, 313 yards, 1 TD) isn’t an option as the starting rusher.

New York’s defense allows 19.5 points (7th), 239.0 passing yards (16th) and 81.5 rushing yards (1st) per game. David Harris has 94 tackles, Muhammad Wilkerson has 12.0 sacks, and Darrelle Revis has five interceptions.

Why Bet The Buffalo Bills at +3 Over the NY Jets

The Buffalo Bills are 7-8 straight up and 7-7-1 against the spread this season. They average 23.7 points (12th), 210.7 passing yards (27th), 154.6 rushing yards (1st) per game.

The banged-up Bills have gone in the opposite direction of the Jets since the previous time the teams met, losing four of five before beating Dallas 16-6 last Sunday. However, they’re motivated by the chance to be a factor in the AFC playoff race.

The Bills front-office confirmed Wednesday that coach Rex Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley will return next season even though the team fell short of Ryan’s expectations. The decision was made easier after the stellar play of QB Tyrod Taylor who Ryan pegged as the starting QB early in the season.

Taylor (2853 yards, 20 TDs & 6 INTs) has taken Buffalo by storm and has earned the starting gig for the Bills next season. His play has been the bright spot for the Bills who have been looking for their first franchise QB since Doug Flutie.

WR Sammy Watkins (49 rec, 911 yards, 9 TDs) has played at a Pro-Bowl level when his injuries have allowed. He is the teams top playmaker down the field and is only in his second season in Buffalo. WR Robert Woods (47 rec, 552 yards, 3 TDs) and TE Charles Clay (528 yards, 3 TDs) are an average supporting cast for this team at best.

RB LeSean McCoy (203 att, 895 yards, 3 TDs) has had one of his worst seasons of his career, mostly due to nagging injuries that has plagued him since the pre-season. He hasn’t found the end zone in the last four games, and has averaged 51.5 rushing yards per game in his last two outings.

Buffalo’s defense allows 22.8 points (16th), 253.0 passing yards (23rd) per game, 107.2 rushing yards per game (15th). Corey Graham has 121 tackles, Jerry Hughes has five sacks, and Ronald Darby has 21 deflected passes.

Betting Trends & Stats Related To This Matchup:

  • 10/26/2014: Buffalo won 43 to 23, Buffalo covered +3, Game went over 41
  • 11/24/2014: Buffalo won 38 to 3, Buffalo covered -2.5, Game came under 42
  • 11/12/2015: Buffalo won 22 to 17, Buffalo covered +2.5, Game came under 41.5
  • The Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.
  • The Bills are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in January.
  • The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction:

The Jets are coming off a huge emotional victory over a hated divisional rival. Now their eyes are firmly set on a wild-card spot in the playoffs. Standing in their way is Rex, who always gets his players to play their best when there’s a little extra on the line. But a coach can only motivate his players so much. For a season that began with so much promise, Buffalo can finish no better than .500. 

Can the Bills sidetrack quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a 106.5 passer rating during the win streak, with 13 touchdown throws and one interception? Doubtful.

Can Buffalo get a repeat of their productive rushing attack from last week without LeSean McCoy (knee)? Unlikely.

My NFL Week 17 Expert ATS Pick: New York Jets -3 over Buffalo

Posted in NFL