Indianapolis at Atlanta Line, Predictions, Pick & Betting TipsNoah Williams
The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons both return from their by weeks in week 11 in hopes of a final push to make the playoffs. The two square off at 1:00 PM ET this Sunday, November 22nd on CBS from the Georgia Dome.
Indy leads the AFC South despite a 4-5 losing record, while the Falcons trail the unbeaten Carolina Panthers by an almost unsurmountable three games in the NFC South. This week the NFL betting line favors the Falcons by 6-points to beat the Colts.
A Closer Look At The Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons NFL Week 11 Line & My Betting Tips
What: Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
When: Sunday, November 22, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
Where: Atlanta, GA
Stadium: Georgia Dome
Spread: Falcons -6
Moneyline: Indianapolis +220 vs Atlanta -260
Game Total: 47.5
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Indianapolis vs Atlanta
Why Bet On The Indianapolis Colts Line At +6
The Indianapolis Colts are 4-5 straight up and against the spread so far this season. They average 22.2 points (19th), 252.4 passing yards (15th), and 101.2 rushing yards (22nd) per game. Before their bye week, they beat the suddenly struggling Broncos by a 27-24 score.
QB Andrew Luck (1881 yards, 15 TDs & 1 INTs) will miss two to six weeks with a lacerated kidney and partially torn abdominal muscle. Leaving the Colts with with the veteran general Matt Hasselbeck (495 yards, 3 TDs 6 0 INTs) under center. Hasselbeck started two games earlier this season when Luck was out with a bum shoulder.
“We’ve won with Matt, and we’ll win again with Matt,” coach Chuck Pagano said. “There are not many guys winning football games with backup quarterbacks right now. But he’s a great leader, got great experience, there’s nothing he has not seen, still got arm talent, can still make all the throws.”
Hasselbeck beat both the Jags and Texans, posting a 95.0 passer rating. He completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 495 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers in those games, both of which were decided by one possession.
“I know my limitations,” Hasselbeck also said Monday. “That might actually be a strength. But I have a lot of limitations.”
Catching the ball for the 40-year old will be TY Hilton (43 rec, 703 yards, 3 TDs), Donte Moncrief (39 rec, 429 yards, 5 TDs) and Andre Johnson (24 rec, 288 yards, 3 TDs).
RB Frank Gore (148 att, 599 yards, 4 TDs) is averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Luck is the second leading rusher on the team, posting 196 rushing yards in 33 attempts.
Indianapolis’ defense allows 25.2 points (22nd), 279.0 passing yards (28th) and 114.9 rushing yards (22nd) per game. D’Qwell Jackson leads the league with 93 tackles, Robert Mathis has four sacks and Mike Adams has five interceptions, tied with Raiders’ Charles Woodson as the league leaders.
Why Bet On The Atlanta Falcons Line At -6
The Atlanta Falcons are 6-3 straight up and 4-5 against the spread so far this season. They average 25.4 points (7th), 288.4 passing yards (5th), and 113.9 rushing yards (15th) per game. Before their bye-week, the Falcons dropped their last two outings against the Bucs and 49ers. Those two under-.500 teams averaged 304.0 yards of total offense.
The Falcons were the darling of the NFL after a 5-0 start. Since then, they’ve dropped three of four while averaging 16.8 points with nine turnovers, so the offense feels it has a debt to repay.
QB Matt Ryan (2702 yards, 12 TDs & 7 INTs) has struggled over their last two games despite posting good numbers. Ryan has thrown 44 or more times four times this season, posting a 1-3 in those outings. In each of those losses, the Falcons carried a defict into the second half.
“We just need to get back to executing in the way we are capable of,” Ryan said. “I think areas that we need to improve are third downs and red zone. In order to be better in those situations, to me it comes down to making the plays when you have the opportunity.”
WR Julio Jones (80 rec, 1029 yards, 6 TDs) has put up five 100+ yard games, including two over the last two weekss. TE Jacob Tamme (38 rec, 430 yards, 1 TD) has settled into the teams second target in the passing game with the decline of Roddy White and an injury to Leonard Hankerson.
Second-year breakout rusher Devonta Freeman (164 att, 721 yards, 9 TDs) has added an element to the Falcons attack that they haven’t had since the Michael Turner days. Freeman has found the end zone three consecutive games.
Atlanta’s defense allows 21.1 points (13th), 253.0 passing yards, and 88.9 rushing yards (3rd) per game. Paul Worrilow has 56 tackles, Jonathan Babineaux has six sacks for a loss and Desmond Trufant has seven passed deflected.
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- Indianapolis Colts 8-6 On Road since last season
- Atlanta Falcons 5-6 At Home since last season
- Indianapolis Colts 4-0 As Underdog or PK this season
- Indianapolis Colts 6-2 As Underdog or PK since last season
- Atlanta Falcons 1-5 As Favorite this season
- Atlanta Falcons 3-9-1 As Favorite since last season
- Indianapolis Colts 3-1 When Line was 46 to 49 since last season
- Indianapolis Colts 3-1 O-U On Road this season
- Indianapolis Colts 8-5-1 O-U On Road since last season
- Indianapolis Colts 3-1 O-U When Line is 45 to 48 this season
- Indianapolis Colts 6-2 O-U When Line is 45 to 48 since last season
- Indianapolis Colts 3-1 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG this season
- Indianapolis Colts 6-5 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG since last season
The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11, 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
My NFL Week 11 Betting Pick: Colts +6
PLAYERS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:
- Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, Phillip Dorsett, D’Joun Smith.
- Atlanta: Devin Hester, Brooks Reed.