Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianpolis Colts ATS Upset Alert Pick

Jacksonville at Indianapolis ATS Upset Alert Pick

Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars visit Lucas Oil Stadium as 13.5 road underdogs to take on Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and the Indianapolis Colts in week 12 NFL betting action at 1pm this Sunday.

The Colts are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last four games against the division rival Jacksonville Jaguars. Coming off a bad home loss to New England, the 6-4 Colts get a welcome an easy opponent.

The Jags are coming off of a bye week and have struggled all season. However their youth movement is paying dividends and most analysts see this team being able to competitive within the next few years.

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Field
Stadium: Indianapolis, IN 
TV Info: CBS
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Jacksonville Vs Indianapolis
Point Spread: Colts -13.5
Game Total: 50.5

Analyzing My Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts ATS Upset Alert Pick

Indianapolis suffered their fourth loss of the season when the Patriots humiliated the Colts, 42-21 on Sunday night football last week. Despite dropping to 6-4 after the loss, they still remain the top seed in the AFC South.

The Colts have the 2nd total offense in the NFL averaging 438.3 yards and 31.0 points per game. QB Andrew Luck has thrown for 3388 yards, 28 TDs & 10, completing 68.8% of his passes, leading the number one passing offense in the league. WR TY Hilton has been the number target with 961 yards on 59 receptions & 3 TDs. With the season ending injury to RB Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Trent Richardson is the only option in their backfield; he has 391 yards on 114 carries & 2 TDs.

Indianapolis’ defense is ranked 22nd in the league, allowing 375.8 yards and 25.3 points per game. They have 17 takeaways this season (8 INTs & 9 fumbles).

The Jacksonville Jaguars didn’t play last week, but they are at the bottom of the AFC South division with a 1-9 record, 0-5 away from home. Their offense is ranked 27th in the league, averaging 315.1 yards per game and the league low 15.8 points per game. Rookie QB Blake Bortles has thrown 1921 yards, 8 TDs & 14 INTs this season, leading the 24th rank passing offense. WR Allen Robinson leads the team with 48 receptions for 548 yards & 2 TDs. RB Denard Robinson has 438 yards in 100 attempts & 4 TDs.

The Jaguars defense has only 11 takeaways this season (5 INTs & 6 fumbles) and ranks 26th against the pass and 26th stopping the run.

The Colts are 7-3 against the spread this season and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss, 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games, 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 1-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC teams and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South teams.

The Jags are 2-7-1 against the spread in 2014, and 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss, 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 9-23-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall.

Jacksonville is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis, but Indy is Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing at home against Jacksonville

Will there be an ATS upset in this matchup? I don’t expect the Jags to cover the two touchdown spread.

Posted in NFL