Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Line, Trends & NFL Betting Analysis

The Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame Game

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Line, Trends & NFL Betting Analysis

The Indianapolis Colts finally won their first game three weeks into the season and now for the bad news. Rumors out of Indy are that struggling QB Andrew Luck may miss his first NFL game.

The rumor mills have been working overtime since it was noticed Luck wasn’t making throws during practice Wednesday because of an injured right shoulder. The Colts are hoping he will play. Then according to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter,  Luck was shut down after making some throws before Thursday’s team practice.

This week the Colts will face the 8-point underdog Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis. The game kicks off on CBS this Sunday, October, 4th at 1:00 PM ET.

Will Luck play? If he does will he be the old Luck or the turnover happy Luck of 2015? Should you bet on the Colts or back the Jags? Keep reading for answers to those questions and more.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 4 Betting Analysis

What: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
When: Sunday, October, 4, 2015
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET 
Where: Indianapolis, IN
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
Weather:
Spread: Colts -8
Moneyline: Jacksonville +360 vs Indianapolis -450
Game Total: 47
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

If You Are Betting On The Jacksonville Jaguars +8 Line

The Jaguars are 1-2 straight up and against the spread this season. Surprisingly, Jacksonville was competitive in their first two games and then last week they were throttled by the  Patriots, 51-17. 

Jacksonville averages 16.3 points (29th), 226.0 passing yards  (22nd), and 92.0 (23rd) rushing yards per game. Second-year QB Blake Bortles has thrown for 698 yards, 5 TDs & 3 INTs while completing 53.8% of his passes so far this season. His top two targets are wideouts Allen Robinson (11 rec, 250 yards, 2 TDs) and Allen Hurns (11 rec, 198 yards, 1 TD). Those numbers could easily double in a better offense.

The Jags running game was handed-off to rookie tailback TY Yeldon (48 att, 154 yards, 0 TD). Can the Jaguars get T.J. Yeldon on track against an Indianapolis defense that ranks 20th in the NFL with 336 rushing yards allowed? He had 33 yards on 11 carries last Sunday before the team abandoned the run facing a huge deficit.

The Jacksonville defense gives up an average 30.3 points (30th), 283.0 passing yards (25th) and 90.7 rushing (12th) yards per game. Paul Posluszny leads the Jags with 34 tackles, Davon House has two pass deflections and Jared Odrick has a forced fumble. 

If You Are Betting On The Indianapolis Colts – 8 Line

The Colts are 1-2 straight up but 0-3 against the spread after barely saving their season, beating the Tennessee Titans 35-33 last week.

Indianapolis averages 18.7 points (23rd), 245.0 passing yards (17th), and 96.7 rushing yards per game (21st). 

QB Andrew Luck has thrown for 753 yards, 5 TDs & 7 INTs while completing 56.0% of his passes. Those 7 INTs are the most in the league. Luck has the worst quarterback rating in the NFL, almost five points below Ryan Mallett. If you double Luck’s 65.0 rating, he’d still be 5.4 rating points behind Aaron Rodgers. Good news for Colts Nation is that the Jags are a paltry 1-5 versus Luck. 

Luck’s top target is wily WR TY Hilton (15 rec, 227 yards, 0 TD). Hilton’s zero TDs is a cause for concern. The top redzone target for the Colts offense has been Donte Moncrief (17 rec, 200 yards, 3 TDs). 

Indy’s running game average 96.7 rushing yards per game (19th). The addition of bruising rusher Frank Gore (37 att, 174 yards, 2 TDs) is helping but not enough.  

Indianapolis’ defense gives up 26.7 points  (22nd), 261.0 passing yards (21st) and 112.0 rushing yards (21st) per game. D’Qwell Jackson leads the Colts with 30 tackles, Vontae Davis has five pass deflections and Dwight Lowery has two interceptions. 

Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars 4-6 On Road since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 6-3-1 At Home since last season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 1-2 As Underdog or PK this season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 7-11 As Underdog or PK since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 10-7-1 As Favorite since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 2-0 When Line was 46.5 to 49.5 since last season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 4-6 As Road Underdog since last season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 5-4-1 O-U On Road since last season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 3-2 O-U When Line is 45 to 48 since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 4-2 O-U When Line is 45 to 48 since last season
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2 O-U vs Teams Averaging >25 PPG since last season

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.

The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss, 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, 19-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October and 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. AFC South.

My NFL Week 4 Betting Pick: Colts -8

Players Out or Doubtful:
  • Jacksonville: Denard Robinson, Rashad Greene, Julius Thomas.
  • Indianapolis: D’Joun Smith