Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans AFC Wild Card Odds & Free Pick

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans Odds, Pick & Betting Preview

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans AFC Wild Card Odds & Free Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs began the season by beating the Houston Texans by a 27-20 score on September 13th in their Week 1 NFL match up. But the Chiefs turned things around again, finishing the season by winning 10 straight games, while the Texans stumbled around and needed a full 17 weeks to earn their playoff spot. This week they meet again in an AFC Wild Card tilt. The game kicks off on ESPN this Saturday at 4:20 PM ET from the NRG Stadium in Houston.

A Closer Look At How To Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Vs Houston Texans AFC Wild Card Playoffs Odds

Despite having the better season record at 11-5, the Chiefs are the visiting team versus the 9-7 AFC South champion Houston Texans. The NFL Wild Card weekend betting odds favor Kansas City by a field-goal to beat Houston. If you are betting the money line straight up, The Chiefs pay 100 on 185 while Houston pays 160 on 100. The game total is 40.5 for your over/under bets.

What: AFC Wild Card Game
Who: Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)
When: Saturday, January 9, 2016
Kickoff: 4:20 PM ET 
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Odds: Chiefs -3
Moneyline: Kansas City -185 vs Houston +160
Game Total: 40.5
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Kansas City vs Houston

Why Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Odds At -3 Over The Texans In Their AFC Wild Card Game

The Kansas City Chiefs are the hottest team in the league. They are riding a ten game winning stream after starting the season 1-5 and won two games more than the Texans.

When these two teams previously met this season, the center piece of coach Andy Reid’s offense was stud rusher Jamaal Charles. He went down for the season in early October with a torn ACL. While that would of sunk most team’s seasons, but not the Chiefs.

Since Charles’ injury, the Chiefs are 9-1 with the stellar play of sophomore rusher Charcandrick West, former first pick QB Alex Smith and former Eagle WR Jeremy Maclin. West was just a special team player during the Cheifs/Texans week 1 tilt.

“Not one snap on offense,’’ said Wets was a special teams player for the Chiefs/Texans Week 1 tilt “It’s a totally different Houston team. And we’re a different team, too.’’ He also finished the season leading the Chiefs in yards.

Smith has thrown 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions since Charles went down. While he didn’t have a career season for the Chiefs, Smith did set a personal record for passing yardage with 3,486. 

Maclin was brought into Philadelphia under Reid’s watch and was cast off by now ex-Eagles coach Chip Kelly. He is a speedy, down-field pass catcher with great hands and can break open a game on his own. Maclin caught a total of 1088 yards in the year and six of his eight touchdowns in the last six games of the regular season.

Linebacker Justin Houston missed the season’s final five games because of a knee injury. 

Why Bet The Houston Texans Odds At +3 Over The Chiefs In Their AFC Wild Card Game

The Houston Texans will counter with journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, who was benched this season in favor of Ryan Mallet.  Hoyer was discarded by four other teams before joining the Texans this year and will be making his first career playoff start.

Head-coach Bill O’Brian admitted benching Hoyer was a mistake.

“Because of the ability now to get all the reps, which he’s able to get most of the reps in practice, you see much better chemistry between him and the receivers with the offensive line, with the running game, with how the plays are called, all the different things that go into that,” O’Brien said in November after installing Hoyer as the Texans starting QB. “I think that that’s what you see the most. He’s got confidence, he’s gone in there, and for the most part, he’s played good football.”

The Texans will counter the Chiefs Smith/Maclin connection with their own QB/WR duo of Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins. In his breakout season, Hopkins caught 111 balls this season for 1521 yards and 11 scores, all while catching balls from four different quarterbacks this season: Mallet, TJ Yates, Brandon Weeden and of course Hoyer.

The Texans D was happy to see JJ Watt’s hand out of a cast this past week. He led the league with 17.5 sacks this season. Watt and the rest of the Texans D will be salivating at the sight of the Chiefs offensive line that gave up the third-most sacks this season. Smith was downed 45 times holding the ball, one less than Packer Aaron Rodgers and six fewer than Jaguars’ Blake Bortles.

Houston was 5-3 against the spread at home this season.

Betting Trends & Stats Related To This Matchup:

  • 9/13/2015: Kansas City won 27 to 20, Kansas City covered -1, Game went over 40.5.
  • The Chiefs are averaging 25.3 over their past 16 games.
  • The Houston Texans are averaging 21.2 in that same time period. 
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 19-13 against the spread.
  • The Houston Texans are 18-13 against the spread.
  • The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
  • The Texans 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • The Chiefs have lost 8 straight playoff games.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction:

A whopping 68% of the early public bets are landing on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the spread. 

The Texans won a weak AFC South and should not be in the playoffs the way their season unfolded. Add the fact that the Chiefs are rolling and the pick becomes easier. This will be a close, low scoring game but will end up with Kansas City on top.

My final score prediction is Kansas 21, Houston 17.