Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Spread & ATS Pick

Houston Vs New England TNF Spread

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Spread & ATS Pick

The NFL’s hottest team will face the defending Super Bowl Champions to kick off the divisional round of the playoffs.

The Kansas City Chiefs will seek for their 12th win in a row when they visit Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots in their AFC divisional game this weekend. The game kicks off on CBS this Saturday, January 16th at 4:35 PM Eastern Time.

A Closer Look At How To Bet The Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots AFC Divisional Playoffs Spread & My Free ATS Pick

The NFL AFC Divisional betting spread favors the home Patriots by 5-points to beat the Chiefs. If you are betting the money line straight up then Kansas City pays 195 on 100 while New England pays 100 on 235. The game total is at 43 points.

What: Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
When: Saturday, January 16, 2016
Kickoff: 4:35 PM ET 
Where: Foxboro, MA
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Spread: Patriots -5
Moneyline: Kansas City +195 vs New England -235
Game Total: 43
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Kansas City vs New England

Why Bet The Kansas City Spread at +5 Over The Patriots

The Chiefs pass rush is the key to this game. New England’s banged up, patchwork offensive line can’t protect Tom Brady. To make things worse for Brady, the Kansas City D had 47 sacks this season, fourth best in the NFL. Brady is is in for a long afternoon.

KC’s pass rush received a boost last week with the return of OLB Justin Houston who played last week for the first time since week 12. He will be game-time decisions for Saturday agains the Pats.

"I felt great," Houston said after the win over the Houston Texans. "I had to knock some rust off. I didn’t do as well as I wanted to do out there. I was kinda resting, I hadn’t played in five games. I definitely will do better next game."

Kansas City’s defense allows 17.9 points per game, which is third-best in the NFL. If you count the last five games for the Chiefs, they have allowed only 9.4 points per game, including shutting down the Texans last week.

Why Bet The New England Patriots Spread at -5 Over The Chiefs

The Patriots should have most of their regulars back on offense for this tilt after stumbling their way to the finish of the regular season. A week off with Wild-Card play last week also helped this team heal.

The return of Julian Edelman gives Tom Brady his favorite’s receiver back. Edelman hasn’t played since week seven when he broke his foot. He’s the team’s second most productive pass catcher behind Rob Gronkowski who is receiving treatment on a wonky knee. Edelman had 61 receptions and seven touchdowns which is 11 and 7 less that Gronk respectively. He also missed the last half of the season.

Edelman has missed the last seven games because of a broken foot suffered against the New York Giants on Nov. 15. New England averaged 33.6 points in the nine he played before the Patriots averaged 23.1 without him.

With the return of Edelman, does KC have the talent to cover him, Gronk and Danny Amendola?

Betting Trends & Stats Related To This Matchup:

  • 9/29/2014: Kansas City won 41 to 14, Kansas City covered +3, Game went over 47.5
  • The Patriots are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss.
  • The Patriots are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 playoff home games.
  • The Patriots are 0-4-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
  • Then Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
  • The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction:

With most of the offense firepower back as close to 100%, the New England Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC. An 11 game winning streak by the Kansas City Chiefs is impressive until you look at their opponents. They beat the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders twice, the Baltimore Ravens, the Cleveland Browns, the Houston Texans and a Big Ben-less Pittsburgh Steelers.

Their defense will keep it close to cover, but the Pats will carry the day.

My final score prediction is Kansas City 24, New England 28.