Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers – NFL Week 5 Free PicksAndrew Price
Two teams that had tremendous wins in week 4 will clash this Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) visit Levi Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at 4:25 PM ET, for the NFL’s week 5.
The San Francisco 49ers are 5.5 favorites for this matchup in the NFL betting lines and early in the week that line was at six points. The game total is currently at 44 points.
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 4, 2014
The Kansas City Chiefs have won two games in a row, but last week’s victory 41-14 over the New England Patriots was perhaps the best win in recent memory for this franchise. What worries me about this is the fact that Kansas City could get too hype-up about that win and forget they have a complicated challenge on Sunday.
With the return of RB Jamaal Charles (he scored 3 TDs) to the lineup, the Chiefs looked a lot better on offense as QB Alex Smith was able to spread the field considering that the Patriots defense had to cover Charles on run plays or even on screen plays.
However, most people don’t realize how important the return of TE Travis Kelce is for this team. He caught eight balls for 93 yards and a touchdown against New England, and looked like an unstoppable force in the tight end position.
Knowing all this, I know you feel pretty good about picking the Kansa City Chiefs, right? Well, you can throw all that to the garbage because the 49ers defense is not the Patriots, and they showed it in an impressive way last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@KCChiefs) October 4, 2014
San Francisco allowed 21 points from the Eagles in the 28-21 victory from last week, but those 21 points all came because of the special teams, and Niners defense was able to contained one of the best offense in the NFL to just 213 totals yards and 11 first downs, and only one of them came running the ball.
I feel like most people are going to overreact about the Chiefs, and you can see it now with the line movement in the NFL point spread as most money is going to Kansas City, but reality is San Fran is the best of the two teams on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers offense recorded 407 total yards against Philadelphia last week; 218 of those were running the ball as they decided to get back to the basics and pound the ball early and often.
According to the NFL betting trends the 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games on grass.
The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, but 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.