The oddsmakers’ job is to find a proper balance in the spread to make both teams appealing to the betting public. But how do you make the Jacksonville Jaguars appealing to bet on? Well, you create the largest spread in NFL history and pray someone take the dog in the fight.
The Jacksonville Jags are 28.5-point underdogs when they go to Mile High to face the undefeated Denver Broncos.
What has history taught us about huge point spreads difference?
Since 1976, there have been 14 games with 19 or more point spread difference, including one this season between the aforementioned Jaguars and the Seattle Seahawks.
Only three times did the favorite cover the spread. Here are the 13 previous results:
- Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+27) – 12/4/1976: Pittsburgh 42, Tampa 0
- Philadelphia at New England (-24) – 11/25/2007: New England 31, Philadelphia 28
- Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco (-24) – 12/5/1993: San Francisco 21, Cincinnati 8
- San Francisco at Atlanta (+23.5) – 10/11/1987: San Francisco 25, Atlanta 17
- Tampa Bay at Dallas (-23) – 10/3/1977: Dallas 23, Tampa Bay 7
- Miami at New England (-22) – 12/23/2007: New England 28, Miami 7
- New England at Tampa Bay (+21) – 12/12/1976: New England 31, Tampa Bay 14
- N.Y. Jets at New England (-20.5) – 12/16/2007: New England 20, N.Y. Jets 10
- Indianapolis at New England (-20.5) – 12/4/2011: New England 31, Indianapolis 24
- Carolina at St. Louis (-19.5) – 11/11/2001: St. Louis 48, Carolina 14
- Jacksonville at Seattle (19.5) – 09/22/2013: Seattle 45, Jacksonville 17
- Houston at Philadelphia (-19) – 9/29/2002: Philadelphia 35, Houston 17
- New England at Baltimore (+19) – 12/3/2007: New England 27, Baltimore 24
The Jaguars already failed to cover the spread against the Seahawks losing exactly by 28 but they did put up 17 points (mostly on garbage time) against a Seattle defense that averaged 10 points against a game when playing at home.
How bad is the matchup for the Jaguars?
Well, it’s bad.
So far no one has been able to keep up with the Broncos. No one.
The 51 points the Broncos scored against the Cowboys this past week is exactly the amount of points the Jaguars have scored in the entire season.
Can the Jaguars defense slow down Peyton Manning?
The first thing you think is that they will have to limit Broncos QB Peyton Manning to human performance, but is that even possible?
Manning looked uncomfortable at times when Dallas pressured him on Sunday, but according to Profootballfocus.com it only happened seven of the 42 times he dropped back. That is no way to beat the Broncos.
The Jags will need to pressure Manning to win, but I don’t see that happening.
UNBELIEVELABLE STAT OF THE WEEK: the Broncos have punted only three times in the last three games.
Can the Jaguars score enough to cover the spread?
A 30-point spread is more along the line of a college football spread, but it’s today’s NFL.
The Broncos defense is 32nd against the pass allowing 347 yards per game and they also ranked 24th in scoring allowing 27.8 points a game. The defense spends more time on the field than they should with the offense marching up and down the field at will; for example against Dallas their first TD was a three play, 80 yards drive that lasted 50 seconds.
The Jags will only cover if Broncos head coach Fox sits his 1st team after half time because they are already leading by 50 points.
What is the best bet available for this game?
Take the first half over and the game over.