NFL Week 17 Lock Picks

My NFL Week 17 Lock Picks

NFL Week 17 Lock Picks

It’s time to take a look at the best possible NFL Week 17 Lock Picks!  Carolina battles Atlanta in the Georgia Dome for the right to represent the NFC South in the NFL Playoffs. Jacksonville travels to Houston to take on the other team from Texas, the one that plays in the AFC, before NYJ travels to Florida to battle Miami.

Analyzing My NFL Week 17 Lock Picks

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
When: Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Atlanta -3.5

Analysis: Close to 70% of the public are backing the Falcons in this game to cover the spread. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense since the Falcons don’t appear to be much better than Carolina.
Sure, Atlanta beat New Orleans 30 to 14 in Week 16, but Carolina dominated New Orleans in the Super Dome just a few weeks ago with a stunning 41 to 10 victory. Yes, Atlanta played Green Bay tough, but the Falcons also lost at home to Pittsburgh.

Carolina’s Cam Newton played well under center for the Panthers in their 17 to 13 victory over the Cleveland in Week 16. The Panthers rushed for 209 yards. Newton had 63 of those yards while Jonathan Stewart rushed for 122 yards. Atlanta gives up 133.3 yards per game on the ground and a terrible 291.1 yards per game through the air.

The Falcons’ defense is going to have a tough time dealing with the Panthers’ rushing attack while on offense; Atlanta faces a very good defense, one that has allowed only 13 points per game on average in Carolina’s last 3 matchups. The Panthers are a lock to cover the spread in this game on Sunday.

NFL Week 17 Lock Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Houston -10

Analysis: The Texans are still alive in the AFC Playoff race. Houston wins the tie break over both Miami and Kansas City. What it means is that if San Diego were to lose to Kansas City, not a big impossibility since the Chargers battle the Chiefs on the road in Week 17, and Houston were to beat Jacksonville, then Houston would secure a spot in the AFC Playoffs.

Houston should have no trouble doing exactly that, beating Jacksonville, and the Texans should do it by a wide-margin. Case Keenum wasn’t even on an active roster before the Texans signed him last week to start at quarterback for them. Was he great versus Baltimore?  He most definitely was not, but he was good enough for Houston to win the game.

Jacksonville’s defense is ranked twenty-seventh in the NFL while its offense is ranked thirty-second in points scored per game at a bit over 15. The Jaguars just aren’t good enough to keep this one close. The Jags might consider pulling rookie QB Blake Bortles early if J.J Watt and the Houston defense put him on his back too often early in this game.

NFL Week 17 Lock Pick: Houston Texans -10

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
When:  Sunday, Dec. 28 at 1:00 pm ET
Betting Line: Miami -4.5

Analysis: Miami should have motivation to beat the Jets at home on Sunday, but so many things have to happen for the Fins to make the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine they won’t feel somewhat down before this one is kicked off.

NYJ players figure to be plenty motivated to send Coach Rex Ryan away on a winning note. There is very little chance that Ryan remains the head man at the Jets no matter what happens in this game. Ryan remains an extremely popular coach with players. His team is going to do all that it can, like it did against New England in Week 16, to show Ryan how much they care for him.

NYJ is ranked third in the NFL in rush yards per game. The Jets’ defense is one of the best in the league. Miami is going to have some problems scoring enough points to cover the spread in this one.

NFL Week 17 Lock Pick: New York Jets +4.5