NFL in London Odds and Picks – Miami at Oakland From Wembley Stadium, London on Sept 28th, 2014Noah Williams
After the week one 33 to 20 victory over New England, every football handicapper seemed impressed with Miami. Two subsequent losses, bad losses to what appeared to be inferior teams, Buffalo and Kansas City, have football betting handicappers shunning Miami once again. Click here to view more NFL betting odds.
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders
When: Sept. 28, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Wembley Stadium, London
Betting Odds: Miami -4, Total 41
Unfortunately for those handicappers, Miami travels to London to take on a team that might be worse than they are in Oakland. The team from the other side of the Bay, has been horrible in 3 games so far this season. They’ve barely looked like a football team, much less like one that plays in a professional league.
But, there were positive signs in Oakland’s last, a 9 to 16 loss to New England as a +10.5 point road dog. Can the Raiders build on that momentum to shock Londoners at Wembley Stadium this Sunday?
NFL in London Odds and Picks – Miami at Oakland Analysis:
How bad are the Oakland Raiders? Oakland averages 12.3 points per game. That’s ranked thirty-second in the NFL. The team averages 254 yards per game. That ranks thirty-second in the NFL. They average 190 passing yards per game, ranking them thirtieth in that category and 64.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking them thirty-first in that category.
— OAKLAND RAIDERS (@RAIDERS) September 24, 2014
The offense is on track to be one of the worst that NFL fans have seen in years. The defense is somewhat okay, though. The Raiders do give up 158.7 rushing yards per, which is terrible, but the defense also holds teams to 183.3 yards per game through the air. Overall, the defense is actually ranked twelfth in the NFL.
That’s slightly worse than the Dolphins’ ninth ranked defense. On offense, Miami averages the same, 190 yards, through the air per game and the Fins barely score more than the Raiders do at 19.3 points per. The average has been bolstered by the 30 points that they scored against New England in Week 1.
Neither one of these teams has the upper hand when it comes to the trends. The Raiders are 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss, 2 and 5 ATS in the last 7 games overall and 0 and 6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4. The Dolphins are 2 and 7 in their last 9 games in Week 4, 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC and 0 and 5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game.
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 24, 2014
What do all of these stats and trends mean? They mean that the London contest this Sunday is a battle between two awful teams that are much more alike than one might expect given their records. It also means that football betting handicappers have to give the edge to the Raiders.
The reason is simple. If two teams are playing on a neutral field, which is the case here even though Oakland is the “home” team, and one doesn’t appear to have any real edge over the other, it goes to reason that bettors have to take the points in the game. That’s exactly the set up in this contest. Take the points or back the Oakland Raiders on the money line. That’s the smart bet here.
Pick: Oakland Raiders +4