Miami at Denver NFL Week 12 ATS Upset Pick

Miami at Denver NFL Week 12 ATS Upset Pick

Miami at Denver NFL Week 12 ATS Upset Pick

After an unexpected loss in St. Louis last week, the Denver Broncos can’t afford to slip again as they host the upstart Miami Dolphins this Sunday at 4:25 PM ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, in a NFL week 12 matchup live on CBS. The Broncos are one touch down favorites in this game. Click here for more NFL betting odds.

The Broncos 22-7 loss suffered at the hands of the Rams had enormous repercussions on Denver’s immediate future. First, they are now two games behind the New England Patriots in the fight for the AFC top seed and in the process of losing they lost three marquee players to injury.

RB Monte Ball (groin), TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) left the game against the Rams last week and have yet to practice this week. Without those playmakers, the Rams D was able to double team Demaryius Thomas and stack the box infront of Peyton Manning who suffered as a result, completing 34 of 54 passes for 389 yards, 1 TDs and 2 INTs while being sacked twice.

Analyzing My Miami at Denver NFL Week 12 ATS Upset Pick

The Broncos have the 27th rank rushing offense in the NFL, averaging less than 90 per game. This is a pass first offense. Each week defenses with a strong front secen are figuring out ways to pressure Manning who has thrown multiple interceptions in the last three games against New England, Oakland and St. Louis; all teams with playmakers in their defensive front seven.

Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, Nov. 23
Start Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Denver, CO 
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
TV Info: CBS
Live Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Miami Vs Denver
Point Spread: Broncos -7
Moneyline: Dolphins +270 vs Broncos -320
Game Total: 49

Now, how will he perform against Miami’s second best defense overall in the league? Especially on the socreboard where the Dolphins are allowing a paltry 18.0 points per game. Don’t forget thei are also fourth in points against per game.

The Dolphins enter this matchup on 10 days rest after beating the Bills last Thursday 22-9 at home in a playoff caliber game in November. Miami has won four of the last six games allowing more than 20 points just once, in the 27-24 last second loss at home against the Green Bay Packers. Keeping the final score within 3 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is a great feat, but this week they will have to deal with the November weather in Denver.

On offense, Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will have to take advantage of a Broncos 18th ranked pass defense and allowed Rams QB Shaun Hill to complete 20 of 29 passes last week for 220 yards and 1 TD without a single interception.

The Broncos are favored by seven, which is the 2nd lowest spread in a home game for the Boncos all season. Denver was 6.5 favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in week seven. The game total is currently at 49 points.

Denver is clearly banged-up, but Peyton has had a whole week to prepare and he is always dangerous coming off a loss. Also, Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home in this series.

The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC teams.

NFL Week 12 ATS Upset Pick: Dolphins +7