Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos Line, Trends & NFL Betting AnalysisNoah Williams
NFL Week 4 betting action continues with the 6.5-point under dog Minnesota Vikings visting Mile High Stadium to face the Denver Broncos. The game kicks off on FOX this Sunday, October, 4th at 4:25 PM ET. Cord-cutters can stream the game via Fox Sports Go.
Most did predict the Denver Broncos opening the season undefeated. But how many of you thought it would be because of their suffocatingly dominate defense instead of their quick strike offense?
Their opponent, the Vikings, may be NFL week 4 betting underdogs but not for a lack of giddy up in their game. They are coming off of back-to-back wins versus the Bolts and Lions. Even better news is that dominant rusher Adrian Peterson is in mid-season form after a year off.
Will you be betting on Peyton Manning and the Broncos or Adrian Peterson and the Vikings?
A Closer Look At The Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos NFL Week 4 Betting Line
What: Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
When: Sunday, October, 4, 2015
Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET
Where: Denver, CO
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Weather: 51° F / Sprinkles Late
Spread: Broncos -6.5
Moneyline: Minnesota +245 vs Denver -290
Game Total: 43
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Listen: Minnesota vs Denver
If You Are Betting On The Minnesota Vikings +6.5 Line
Minnesota has won two straight games since dropping the regular season opener and come into this contest off an emphatic 31-14 win over San Diego to cash in as a 2-point home favorite.
Bridgewater had a so-so game in completing 13 of 24 passes for 121 yards with one pick, but it was future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson that led the Vikes to victory by rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 3, 2015
The Vikings are ranked 29th in total offense and 19th in scoring (20.0). defensively, Minnesota ranks a stellar fifth in points allowed (16.7 ppg).
If You Are Betting On The Denver Broncos -6.5 Line
Denver remained unbeaten by handing the struggling Lions a convincing 24-12 loss in Week 3 to cash in as a 3-point road favorite. Manning completed 31 of 42 passes for 324 yards with two touchdowns and one interception and the defense picked off Detroit ‘s Matthew Stafford twice to win the turnover battle.
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 28, 2015
Despite being undefeated, Denver is ranked a dismal 30th in total offense, though they have managed to rank 13th in scoring (24.7 ppg) as new head coach Gary Kubiak alters the Broncos’ offense to give it more balance by running the ball more.
Defensively, the Broncos are ranked first in total yards and passing, sixth against the run and an impressive fourth in points allowed (16.3).
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- Minnesota Vikings 2-1 All Games this season
- Denver Broncos 3-0 All Games this season
- Minnesota Vikings 5-4 On Road since last season
- Denver Broncos 5-5 At Home since last season
- Denver Broncos 9-8 As Favorite since last season
- Minnesota Vikings 0-3 O-U All Games this season
- Denver Broncos 1-2 O-U All Games this season
- Minnesota Vikings 2-7 O-U On Road since last season
- Denver Broncos 5-4-1 O-U At Home since last season
- Minnesota Vikings 4-7 O-U When Line is <45 since last season
- Denver Broncos 1-1 O-U When Line is <45 since last season
- Minnesota Vikings 2-7 O-U When Line was 41.5 to 44.5 since last season
- Denver Broncos 1-1 O-U When Line was 41.5 to 44.5 since last season
The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
58 percent of the betting public likes Denver to cover the spread at home as a near-touchdown favorite, but I think this game has the look of a classic field goal contest if you ask me. Denver ‘s offense and its ability to score points in a hurry are now a thing of the past as Denver tries to run a more conventional offense that doesn’t revolve around Manning so exclusively.
Having said that, I also love the way that Minnesota has been playing defense since hiring Mike Zimmer a year ago and I believe the Vikes will pick off Manning at least once in this contest.
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and 4-2 ATS in its last half-dozen road games. Conversely, Denver is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win
66 percent of the betting public likes the Over for this inter-conference matchup, but with two elite defense taking the field, I’m thinking the Under is close to a lock selection. The total has gone Under in five of Minnesota ‘s last half-dozen games and six of Denver ‘s last nine games.
My NFL Week 4 Betting Pick: Broncos -6.5
Players Out of Doubtful:
- Minnesota: Josh Robinson
- Denver: Derek Wolfe, Marvin Austin