Monday Night Betting Free Pick – New Orleans Can Dominate Seattle

NFC Divisional Playoff Betting Trends - New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

Monday Night Betting Free Pick – New Orleans Can Dominate Seattle

News broke this week that two players from the Seattle secondary will be suspended due to substance abuse problems, and this couldn’t happen against a worse team. The Saints are right on the heels of the Seahawks in the overall standings, and owning the tie-breaker is going to be pivotal for home field advantage in the post season. Usually you don’t bet against Seattle at home, but under these circumstances you simply have to.

The Seahawks are a definite contender in the Super Bowl picture, but they’ve also enjoyed a rather cushy schedule. They destroyed Minnesota, Atlanta and Arizona during their six game winning streak, but also struggled against Tampa, St. Louis and Tennessee. At just 3-3 ATS over those six wins, they’re not exactly performing at a consistent clip.

New Orleans Saints (9-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (10-1)
The New Orleans Saints are 4.5 points dogs against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night.
Starts: 12/02/2013 8:30PM
CenturyLink Field, 800 Occidental Ave. S.
Seattle, Washington

 

New Orleans has been an equally tough bet over the last couple months. Through October and November they are a polished 5-2 SU, but are also just 3-4 ATS in those games. Even more troubling is that they have two losses and three failed covers in their past three road games against the Falcons, Jets and Patriots. On top of that, New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning home record.

Trends for a road team are usually very reliable, but you have to dig deeper to understand where New Orleans has struggled. Last Thursday, they scratched Sproles at the last minute against Atlanta and it obviously disrupted their overall game plan. They were in a nail biter when playing New England and lost on a desperation touchdown by Brady. Against the Jets, they simply played horribly, which happens. Those are all explainable games.

BONUS NFL BETTING PICKS

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
Houston
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
Carolina
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Jacksonville
Cleveland
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Chicago
Minnesota
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Arizona
Philadelphia
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Atlanta
Buffalo
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Miami
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

 

New Orleans’ defense has also been pretty solid on the road too, averaging just 20.2 points against on the road. Seattle has some big numbers when playing at CenturyLink, but they have all come against generally bad teams (and a Niners team that had no energy). Seattle is also known in gambling circles as a momentum team. They’re 1-5-1 ATS when coming out of the bye week.

The return of Sproles, combined with the absences in the secondary for Seattle make this a very winnable game for New Orleans who are posting as attractive road dogs in Monday Night betting. Seattle has allowed just 15.4 points against in their last 5 home games, but they have never hosted a team as potent and complete as New Orleans during those matchups. That’s worth keeping in mind.

Make no mistake – I think Seattle is a great team, but they haven’t had great competition in the past two months and have benefited from a relatively soft schedule of opponents. New Orleans is anything but soft, and will give Seattle and their Monday Night betting backers a serious run for their money as they victimize an undermanned secondary that will be scrambling to catch up. There’s an good chance that Harvin wreaks havoc against New Orleans, but I think Rob Ryan will have a plan that the Saints will execute to the letter.

Do not take Seattle for granted just because they’re at home. New Orleans isn’t just in a prime position to keep this game close, they are fully capable of handing Seattle their first loss in a long time. As exciting as Wilson has been, there’s no track record for his performance in big time statement games and we have a long list of evidence to support the idea that these are the types of contests that Drew Brees simply doesn’t lose.

Monday Night Betting Free Pick – New Orleans +4.5