My Complete 2014 NFL Betting Guide Will Reveal Season’s Best BetsJosh Bailey
If you’re excited about the upcoming 2014 NFL season and you looking to gather as much information as you can in an effort o increase your chances of consistently cashing in, then you’re in for a huge treat thanks to this informative 2014 NFL betting guide.
From the teams with the best chances of reaching the postseason and winning Super Bowl 49 to the players with the best chances of cashing in on their fun-filled and value-packed NFL Futures Odds, you’re going to be treated to the best guide for your 2014 NFL betting season.
Okay, with that said and the start of the 2014 season quickly approaching, let’s rock and roll.
The Complete 2014 NFL Betting Guide
1. Which teams have the best chances of reaching the postseason?
Seattle and San Francisco
Could the Seahawks and Niners meet in the NFC title game again? I think the answer is an unequivocal ‘Yes’ even if one of them doesn’t make it. Both teams have the perfect formula for success – and it’s actually an age-old blueprint that myriad teams like the 70’s Steelers, have used to perfection for years.
Offensively, Seattle and Frisco both employ run-first, rushing attacks that offer just enough passing to keep defenses honest. On the other side of the ball, both teams have stingy defenses that routinely shut down their opponents and often give their own offenses sort field and extra possessions.
Call me crazy, but until I see otherwise, I still believe Seattle and San Francisco are on top in the NFC.
Not only are the Packers the favorite in the NFC North, but I fully believe Green Bay could upset either of the aforementioned teams, (particularly Frisco) if their defense improves across the board just a bit from last season. I mean, when you have a quarterback that is as good as Aaron Rodgers, then your team is always going to have a shot. Oh…and let me not forget to mention that Mike McCarthy is seriously underrated in the coaching department.
The Saints are my pick to take back the title from Carolina in the competitive NFC South this season and I think that’s just the tip of the iceberg – if New Orleans shows some big improvement on defense that is. The good news is that the Saints made several offseason moves to address their issues – and they have one of the game’s best quarterbacks in future Hall of Famer, Drew Brees.
With every other team being either mediocre or flat-out awful, the Philadelphia Eagles could probably win the NFC East in their sleep this season to reach the postseason. However, if the Birds don’t show some improvement on the defensive side of the ball, (they ranked 29th in total yards) then all of Chip Kelly’s offensive genius won’t matter one iota come playoff time, even though I will admit it sure is fun watching the Philly on offense (2nd overall).
The Panthers play in a competitive division that I expect to be even tougher in 2014 than it was last season. Still, when you play defense like the Panthers did a year ago (2nd) then you should have a decent chance to reach – and win – in the postseason. Unfortunately, Carolina’s 25th-ranked offense could very well derail this NFC hopeful.
The Broncos have the league’s best offense but they finished just 19th overall in defense last season. The good news is that Denver addressed its needs on defense this offseason and could very well complete their quest to win a Super Bowl title with Peyton Manning leading them. Still, I remain a bit skeptical after seeing Peyton Manning come up short too many times in the postseason despite having what appeared to be the best team in the conference for several years with Indianapolis.
Turns out Wes Welker will miss 4 straight games against teams that won 10-or-more games last season: Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 3, 2014
The Pats are my pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49, despite the fact that they’re pretty much in the same classification as Denver. The Pats ranked seventh in total offense last season but just 26th in total defense. Still, I believe the genius of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady could, not only propel New England into the playoffs, but actually into Super Bowl 49 if their defensive upgrades work out for them this season.
By declaring he'll play on Sunday, Gronk either defied his coach or helped implement Belichick's gamesmanship http://t.co/8inoj5qfoV
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 1, 2014
The Bengals were very solid on both sides of the ball in 2013 as they ranked third in total defense and 10th in total offense. Now, I know a lot of pundits aren’t quite as high n the Bengals as I am, but I see no reason to doubt that Andy Dalton will guide Cincinnati into the postseason, even tough they compete in a tough AFC North with competitive rivals like Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
The Colts ranked 15th in total offense buts just 20th in total defense and I have some concerns after watching them all postseason. However, when you have a quarterback that is as good as Andrew Luck is – and when you play in a division that is weak as the AFC South will be again in 2014, then you’re definitely going to have a chance to reach the playoffs, although I’m not sure about Indy’s postseason hopes beyond a one-and-done appearance.
Who else has a shot?
The Cardinals aren’t getting a whole lot of love from national media members, but I believe if Arizona can win 10 games while playing in the same division as Frisco and Seattle, then anything’s possible. Still, the Cards seriously need to improve an offense that ranked a modest 12th overall, even though I think Arizona’s sixth-ranked defense will help them win their fair share of games.
I really like Detroit heading into the 2014 season after watching them finish sixth in total offense and a respectable 16th in defense. The best thing the Lions did this past offseason was hire no-nonsense head coach Jim Caldwell, even though I will admit that it could take a bit of time to get rid of all the dysfunction that existed with this team under former head coach Jim Schwartz.
Calvin Johnson: I believe this is our best chance at a title http://t.co/cHY7V5Keu1
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 3, 2014
I’m not real fond of quarterback Jay Cutler, but I really like head coach Marc Trestman a lot and I believe the Bears are going to score more than their fair share of points in 2014. Like a handful of their NFC counterparts, Chicago’s postseason hopes will only go as far as their 30th-ranked defense takes them.
Most people don’t know that the Chargers finished fifth in total offense last season, but they did – and I think they could be even better offensively in 2014 as some of their young players like outspoken wide receiver Keenan Allen, step up to another level. Sure, the Bolts need to address their 23rd-ranked defense, but what team doesn’t have its blemishes?
The Chiefs looked fantastic in getting off to a perfect 9-0 start last season – before the wheels fell completely off and K.C. ended up with an 11-5 record that doesn’t look quite so good when you consider they lost five of their final seven games. If Kansas City doesn’t improve its 24th-ranked defense, then the postseason could be out of the question for Andy Reid, Alex Smith and company.
The Ravens ranked a respectable 12th in total defense but an awful 29th in total offense. I’m not a fan of quarterback Joe Flacco, but I suspect the Ravens will at least challenge Cincinnati for division supremacy in the competitive AFC North.
The Steelers ranked a mediocre 19th in offense and 13th in total offense and they’ve got ‘drama’ now with the recent arrests of running backs Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, whose surname, I might add, is quite fitting after his most recent run-in with the law. Still, I suspect the Steelers will have a shot to reach the postseason, although I certainly don’t see three teams are not getting in from the AFC North.
Troy Polamalu thinks a Johnny Manziel package will work better than a Tim Tebow package did http://t.co/tuVlKpG9vG
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 2, 2014
2. Which teams have the best chances of advancing in the playoffs?
Can you say Super Bowl Bound?
I’m penciling in Frisco to reach the NFC title game.
The Packers have a balanced offense, a great quarterback – thereby putting the entire onus on the team’s 25th-ranked defense.
Thanks mostly to Drew Brees, I think the New Orleans Saints could upset the entire apple cart in the NFC.
Like the Saints and Packers, Philly’s postseason hopes will likely come down to how good their defense will be.
Tick-tock…I think the clock is counting down on New England’s chances of getting back into the Super Bowl – and I say the ringer is just about due to go off.
The Broncos will reach the postseason and they’ll almost certainly win one game at the least. However, if the Broncos run into a defensive juggernaut in the playoffs, then that’s another story all together.
I’m going on record to say that the Bengals will not only reach the postseason in 2014, but that they’ll actually win a playoff game.
I think the Chargers are going to surprise a couple of teams this season, especially if they get in the playoffs.
The Colts should be about ready to take the next step from very good to elite, but I sense they’re not quite ready for prime time, even though winning the AFC South will be a cakewalk in 2014.
Jim Irsay, Michael Sam, Wes Welker – let's see what the greatest reality show known as the NFL does for an encore today.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 3, 2014
3. What are the best season win total bets?
Over 9 wins -185
Under 9 wins +155
Analysis: I think Philly’s win total is an absolute ‘lock’ to go over nine wins after watching them win 10 games in Chip Kelly’s maiden season.
Over 8½ wins +140
Under 8½ wins -170
Analysis: Yes, I expect Carolina to take a step backwards in 2014, but after seeing this team win 12 games last season, mostly because of its voracious second-ranked defense, I think they’ll step back to about nine wins, not less than that. Over 8½ Wins
San Diego Chargers
Over 8 wins -150
Under 8 wins +120
Analysis: The Bolts won nine games last season and played fantastic football over the last six weeks of the regular season and playoffs. With the Chiefs taking a slight step backwards in 2014, I think it’s quite possible the Bolts could record double digit wins.
Over 8 Wins
4. Which teams are offering the best value for conference titles?
Analysis: No one is really mentioning the Bengals as a legitimate threat to unseat Denver as conference champs, but I am. Cincinnati is one of just two teams to rank in the top 10 in both, total offense and total defense.
Analysis: All three of these teams have issues on one side of the ball or the other, but I either Seattle, San Francisco falters, then all of these value-packed teams could potentially leap past them, not to mention New Orleans and Green Bay.
5. Which teams are offering the most value for division titles?
- Baltimore Ravens +250
- Pittsburgh Steelers +250
- Detroit Lions +450
- Carolina Panthers +250
- New York Jets +800
- San Diego Chargers +600
Analysis: The Ravens and Steelers could both upset Cincinnati in the AFC North as these three teams stage six, knock-down, drag-out battles amongst themselves every single season.
I’m thinking the Detroit Lions could potentially upset both, Green bay and Chicago in the NFC North if everything goes right for them and a few things go wrong for their division rivals.
After winning a dozen games last season, make no mistake about it, the Carolina Panthers could very well beat out New Orleans to win the NFC South.
If either Geno Smith – or Mike Vick – get hot and New York’s defense gets back to playing overpowering football, I wouldn’t say it’s out of the realm of possibilities for the Jets to pull off the division upset over New England.
I don’t think the San Diego Chargers will actually beat out Denver for the division crown in the AFC West, but if Payton manning misses any time – or Denver slips up defensively, then it could happen for Philip Rivers and company.
6. Which Week 1 regular season games are currently offering the best value?
San Francisco -5 at Dallas
Analysis: If San Francisco doesn’t win this game by at least 10 points, I’ll be shocked.
Washington at Houston Over 45 Total Points
Analysis: Does anyone expect either of these teams to play competent defense? I know I don’t. I’m thinking both of these teams could approach the 30-point plateau in this one.
7. Which NFL MVP Bets offer the best value?
- Tom Brady +850
Brady, already a two-time league MVP, could win his third if the Pats challenge for conference supremacy – and a berth in Super Bowl 49.
- Aaron Rodgers +700
A return to full health could mean that Rodgers, the 2011 MVP winner, could very well bag his second.
- Russell Wilson +1400
Sure, Seattle’s success is a team-wide kind of thing, but I think Wilson will get more than his fair share of credit if the Seahawks steamroll their NFC counterparts this season. Besides, I expect Seattle to air it out bit more now that Russell is firmly established.
- LeSean McCoy +2500
Adrian Peterson won the MVP award in 2012, but prior to that, the last time a running back won it was back in 2006 when LaDainian Tomlin took home the hardware. I’m thinking the versatile McCoy could win it if Philly surprises and wins, let’s say, a dozen games.
- Matt Forte +6500
Simply put, Matt Forte, along with the aforementioned LeSean McCoy, is the best dual threat running back in the game today. Another huge season for him – and some more success for his Bears team – could catapult Forte to the league MVP title, even if no one really expects that t happen.
8. Which teams are undervalued and which ones are overvalued?
Arizona Cardinals (+5000)
Carolina Panthers (+5500)
Analysis: Both, the Cardinals and Panthers won double-digit games in 2013 and could be primed to take a big step forward in 2014, although I don’t necessarily see that happening for Carolina in particular.
Chicago Bears: (+2000)
Pittsburgh Steelers: (+2800)
Baltimore Ravens: (+3500)
Analysis: I’m a bit shocked all thereof these teams are offering the value they are, particularly seeing as how all three could fail to reach double digits wins in 2014, just like they all did in compiling identical 8-8 records in 2013.