Week 11 NFL Parlay Picks

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts SNF Line, Pick, Predictions & Betting Preview

Welcome to the #Deflategate rematch everyone has been waiting for. 

The New England Patriots meet the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday for the first time since the AFC Championship Game last season — the game that started Deflategate. The Pats were one-touchdown home favorites in that game. Everyone knows how that ended. This season’s week 6 NFL betting odds show signs of two teams going in different directions. The visiting Patriots are 7.5-point favorites to beat the Colts at Lucas Oil Field. Good news for Colts-Nation is that Indy is 9-0 straight up and against the spread in their last nine games as home underdogs.

Since that AFC Championship game, New England is undefeated. Along the way they won a Super Bowl win. Tom Brady, the center of Deflategate, is 38 and is showing no signs of slowing down. While the Colts are in the midst of a three game winning streak, two of those wins came without Andrew Luck, who opened the season 0-2.

A Closer Look At New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Betting Line

What: New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
When: Sunday, October 18, 2015
Kickoff: 8:30 PM ET 
Where: Indianapolis, IN
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
Spread: Patriots -7.5
Moneyline: 55
Game Total: Pats -385 Vs Colts +300
Watch: NBC
Stream:  NBC Sports Live Extra
Listen: New England vs Indianapolis

If You Are Betting On The New England Patriots -7.5 To Beat The Colts

The New England Patriots are 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread so far this season. They average 37.2 points (2nd), 331.2 passing yards (1st), and 92.5 rushing yards (23rd) per game.  Last week they demolished the short-handed Dallas Cowboys by a score of 30-6.

Who else thinks that Brady (1387 yards, 11 TDs & 0 INTs, 121.5 passer rating) will be out for revenge against the Colts? After all it was their last meeting that led to his almost tarnished reputation and almost four-game suspension. This was also to be his first game back if the suspension had stuck. 

Will he need more motivation? How about the game kicking off exactly nine months since the Colts came out out with the Deflategate accusations stemming from the first half of their 45-7 loss to the Pats in the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough. Will the Colts be in for a long night?

When specifically asked if the QB wanted revenge, Brady didn’t take the bait.

“The way to do that is to go score as many points as possible,” Brady said. “And that takes a lot of execution, that takes a lot of communication with your teammates in practice. That’s what I’m focused on. That’s what I’m focused on every week.”

“Now that we’re playing the Colts, for example, it’s not like, ‘All right, well, let’s go change now,'” Brady continued. “Look, we’ve got a good thing going for a long time. And it has to do with all things that are football-related. And things that are about kind of our poise and our discipline, our execution. That’s what wins football games. Not what you say or what your talk is or the predictions you make. Like I said, those things don’t really matter in the end.”

Moving on. So far this season WR Julian Edelman (34 rec, 399 yards, 3 TDs) has been Brady’s favorite target followed by the unstoppable TE Rob Gronkowski (20 rec, 375 yards 4 TDs). The team has missed deep ball threat Brandon LaFell who will be eligible to return in week 7.

RB Dion Lewis (36 att, 180 yards, 2 TDs) has become a double threat running and catching the ball from the backfield. In recent weeks, he has lost carries to LeGarrette Blount (33 att, 156 yards, 3 TDs) who was suspended for the opening game of the season.

New England’s defense allows 19.0 points (7th), 230.0 passing yards (11th), and 112.8 rushing yards (20th) per game. Jamie Collins leads the Pats with 32 tackles, Jabaal Sheard has four sacks and Logan Ryan has two interceptions.

If You Are Betting On The Indianapolis Colts +7.5 To Beat The Pats

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to a  3-2 straight up and 1-4 against the spread record so far this season.  The Colts average 19.8 points (24th), 242.8 passing yards (15th) and 92.0 rushing yards (24th) per game. Last week they barely slipped past the Houston Texans by a 27-20 score.

QB Andrew Luck (753 yards, 5 TDs & 7 INTs) was a full participant in Monday’s practice and is expected to be ready to face the Patriots after missing two games due to a sore shoulder. In his place veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck (495 yards, 3 TDs & 0 INTs) filled in and won both games.

“When you’re not out there playing — we all want to play,” Luck told reporters on Monday about missing time. “Every athlete wants to be out there playing all the time. When you’re not out there, you get an itching to go and certainly pep in your step, yeah.”

Colts top wideout TY Hilton (27 rec, 382 yards, 0 TDs) has yet to find the end zone this year after signing $65 million contract during the offseason. New addition WR Andre Johnson (13 rec, 128 yards 2 TDs) finally made his presence felt last week when he caught six balls for 77 yards & 2 TDs versus his former team. 

Fellow newcomer RB Frank Gore (76 att, 325 yards 3 TDs) ranks 12th in rushing yards in the NFL this season. Both he and the aforementioned Johnson were specifically brought in to help the Colts beat the Patriots. This week we find out if that strategy worked.

Indianapolis’s defense gives up 22.6 points (16th), 287.0 passing yards (28th) and 112.0 rushing yards (19th) per game. D’Qwell Jackson leads the Colts with 58 tackles, Henry Anderson has six tackles for loss and Mike Adams has three interceptions.

Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:

  • New England Patriots 7-4 On Road since last season
  • New England Patriots 9-7-1 As Favorite since last season
  • New England Patriots 5-1-1 When Line was 53.5 to 56.5 since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 4-7 O-U At Home since last season
  • New England Patriots 1-2 O-U When Line is >48 this season
  • Indianapolis Colts 6-8-1 O-U When Line is >48 since last season
  • Indianapolis Colts 1-2-1 O-U When Line was 53.5 to 56.5 since last season

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

The Colts are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 2-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.

Since Andrew Luck was drafted in 2012, the Patriots haven’t had any trouble scoring. Here’s the score of the last four Patriots-Colts games (all Colts losses): 45-7, 42-20, 43-22, 59-24.

My NFL Week 6 Betting Pick: Patriots -7.5.

PLAYERS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:
  • New England: Brandon LaFell, Chris Jones, Dane Fletcher.
  • Indianapolis: D’Joun Smith.
Posted in NFL