Historically this matchup brings out the best in the Giants and the worst in the Patriots. New England is 0-3 in their last three games against the NY Giants, most notably two Super Bowl victories heading into Sunday’s matchup of division leaders. Will being a 7.5-point underdog on the NFL week 8 betting board in their own building motivate the G-Men to beat the ruthless Pats?
A Closer Look At New England Patriots at NY Giants NFL Week 10 Odds & My Betting Analysis
What: New England Patriots (8-0) at NY Giants (5-4)
When: Sunday, November 15, 2015
Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET
Where: East Rutherford, NJ
Stadium: MetLife Stadium
Weather: 53° F | Scattered Clouds
Spread: Patriots -7.5
Moneyline: New England -330 vs New York +270
Game Total: 55
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: New England vs NY Giants
If You Are Betting On The New England Patriots Odds At -7.5
The New England Patriots are 8-0 straight up and 5-1-2 against the spread this season. They average 34.3 points (1st), 352.5 passing yards (3rd) and 94.8 rushing yards (26th) per game. Last week, they beat Washington by a 27-10 score. Despite being held to a season-low in points by the Redskins, there was never a question if the Pats would win.
“We’ve always had very, very close games against them even when we’ve won,” Brady said. “We just haven’t won as many of them as I would’ve liked to have won.”
QB Tom Brady continues to set fire to the league after off-season controversy. So far this season, he has thrown for 2709 yards, 22 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes and posting a league’s best 113.5 passer rating. Last week he completed 26 of 39 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns, including an 8-yard TD to Edelman on the opening drive.
TE Rob Gronkowski (44 rec, 693 yards, 7 TDs) leads the team in receiving yards, but had only 47 receiving yards last week. WR Julian Edelman (57 rec, 639 yards, 7 TDs) had 55 yards and a score last week.
RB Dion Lewis (49 att, 234 yards, 2 TDs) is done for the season with a torn ACL. LeGarrette Blount (98 att, 447 yards, 5 TDs) will likely see the lion’s share of carries for the rest of the season, especially in the red-zone. Last week he recored 129 yards, and one touchdown on 29 carries.
New England’s defense allows 17.9 points (5th), 245.0 passing yards (16th), 89.3 rushing yards (3rd). Jamie Collins has 51 tackles, Chandler Jones leads the NFL with 9.5 sacks and Logan Ryan has four interceptions.
If You Are Betting On The NY Giants Odds At +7.5
The NY Giants are 5-4 straight up and 5-3-1 against the spread this season. They average 27.4 points (5th), 253.0 passing yards (14th), 96.7 (24th) rushing yards per game. Last week they beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 32-18 score. Manning threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Giants rebound from last weekend’s debacle at New Orleans with a 32-18 victory over the mistake-prone Buccaneers on Sunday.
QB Eli Manning has thrown 2339 yards, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions while completing 65.6% of his passes. He has posted a 96.9 passer rating through nine weeks. In his last four games against the Pats, Manning has a 96.7 passer rating with nine touchdowns while getting sacked seven times, while Brady has posted a 90.5 rating with seven TDs while being sacked 10 times.
“I think it’s different teams from those games and over the past eight years, we’ve played them four times, a lot of new faces on their team and our team,” Manning said.
WR Odell Beckham Jr. (59 rec, 759 yards, 7 TDs) is top target in the Giants offense. Rueben Randle (36 rec, 424 yards, 3 TDs) has filled in for the injured Victor Cruz who hasn’t seen the field all season due to a strained calf.
RB Rashad Jennings (94 att, 364 yards, 1 TD) averages 3.9 yards per carry and RB Andre Williams (61 att, 177 yards, 1 TD) average 2.9 yards per carry. Both have struggled to carry the ball successfully this season. That may push the game the game rusher Shane Vereen’s (34 rec, 309 yards, 3 TDs) hands as he is playing his first game versus his former team. He signed with Giants in the off-season.
New York’s defense allows 25.1 points (19th), 300.8 passing yards (31st) and 114.8 rushing yards (22nd) per game. Landon Collins has 56 tackles, Damontre Moore has three sacks and Prince Amukamara has seven passes deflected.
Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:
- New England Patriots 7-5 On Road since last season
- New England Patriots 4-1-2 As Favorite this season
- New England Patriots 11-8-2 As Favorite since last season
- New York Giants 6-7-1 As Underdog or PK since last season
- New England Patriots 6-3-2 When Line was 53.5 to 56.5 since last season
- New England Patriots 2-1 O-U On Road this season
- New England Patriots 7-5 O-U On Road since last season
- New York Giants 3-1 O-U At Home this season
- New York Giants 7-5 O-U At Home since last season
- New York Giants 3-2 O-U When Line is >48 this season
- New York Giants 6-4 O-U When Line is >48 since last season
- New England Patriots 2-0 O-U When Line was 53.5 to 56.5 since last season
The Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games in November, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Pats offense is producing an NFL-high 34.5 points per game with a league-best 31 TDs. The Patriots will be up against a New York defense allowing a league-worst 429.4 yards a contest.
Giants head-coach Coughlin is 5-1 against Belichick.
My NFL Week 10 Betting Pick: NY Giants +7.5.
PLAYERS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:
- New England: Dion Lewis, Chris Jones, Dane Fletcher, Rufus Johnson.
- NY Giants: Victor Cruz, Daniel Fells, Johnathan Hankins, Owamagbe Odighizuwa.